Baked goods will see consumption shift from restaurants and other on-trade outlets in 2020, due to foodservice outlets being closed during the COVID-19 lockdown. As a result, on-trade volume sales are expected to decline in the year.
Golden Harvest Foods’ Dawn was one of the first brands to emerge in packaged baked goods in Pakistan and benefits from high levels of recognition and a reputation for quality. This enabled the company to maintain the leading position in baked goods throughout the review period, with Dawn leading by a sizeable margin in packaged leavened bread and cakes.
Distribution remains the key category driver for baked goods in the country, with availability and freshness being crucial to maintaining sales. Disruption in the supply chain as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will thus prove the largest challenge for brands in 2020.
Baked goods is overall largely mature and reliant on the widespread consumption of leavened bread, with sales growth thus largely dependent on population growth. Ongoing population growth will thus benefit sales in the forecast period.
Packaged cakes are expected to see good growth in the forecast period, with these products moving further into the mainstream. Mothers are increasingly buying these products as snacks for their children, particularly for packed lunches.
Leading players are expected to continue to gain share in bread, such as Golden Harvest and Bunny’s. Smaller players with an already low share of value sales in bread will however struggle to maintain a share of shelf space in many retail outlets in the forecast period.
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This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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