After posting a rise in 2019, demand for baked goods declined abruptly in 2020 as a result of the impact of COVID-19. In the early months of 2020, the government responded to the onset of the pandemic by implementing a number of precautionary health measures, including instituting a curfew, limiting retail hours and altering protocols for food distribution and handling and delivery to consumers.
Due to consumers’ concerns about becoming infected and/or spreading the COVID-19 virus, consumer demand for some packaged baked goods—cakes, pastries, etc.—increased considerably while demand for unpackaged baked goods declined.
Klas dd captured the leadership in the baked goods category in 2019 and the company is set to hold that position in 2020 after enjoying a boost in value share. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the overwhelming number of baked goods are still produced by smaller bakers, the Klas brand is nonetheless very well-known and Klas products are widely distributed via modern supermarkets.
After the pandemic-related decline in 2020, value sales of baked goods at 2020 constant prices are projected to rebound in 2021 before settling in to more moderate growth rates throughout the remainder of the forecast period. In particular, it is expected that consumers will quickly renew their relationship with sweeter baked goods once availability is less of an issue; indeed, it is expected that there will be double-digit growth in value sales of pastries in 2021 as well as relatively strong demand for cakes.
Demand for baked goods is likely to remain steady throughout the forecast period, particularly as consumers continue to view many pastries, cakes and other sweet and savoury baked goods as well-deserved luxuries and treats. At the same time, however, opportunities to boost value share are likely to arise amongst players who focus on the development healthier baked goods.
Throughout the review period, no meaningful value sales of baked goods were recorded via e-commerce. But that changed slightly in 2020 as the onset of the pandemic and the resultant limited access to retail outlets convinced at least some hungry consumers to order their baked goods online, a switch in distribution that resulted in a handful, albeit scant, of value sales.
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This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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