The trends seen in baked goods in 2022, with strong retail current value growth for packaged products, and slower growth for unpackaged products, are likely to continue in the early forecast period. The overall baked goods category is forecast to be on a growth trajectory in both retail volume and current value terms in the forecast period, as such products are increasingly seen as an easy and quick option to have for a meal, not just as a breakfast alternative.
Convenience stores are increasing the presence of their own private label products. Collaborative pastries with dairy manufacturers, for instance, are adding fuel to the craze for packaged baked goods in convenience stores.
The outlook for dessert mixes is less bright than for bread, cakes, and pastries, with a retail volume decline expected in the forecast period. While the pandemic drove significant growth in dessert mixes under home-oriented activities, its popularity stagnated as soon as lifestyles returned to outside the home.
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Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: Baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal, not packaged/industrial. While they may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which have in the past been used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available.
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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