Baked goods is expected to continue to see positive current value growth throughout the forecast period, with the costs of materials, shipping and labour not expected to fall. On the other hand, retail volume growth is likely to be limited, partly due to price rises, but mainly because the Japanese population is steadily declining and rapidly ageing.
While still a niche, frozen cakes, sweet pies and tarts offers considerable potential for further growth in the forecast period. While such products used to mainly be for foodservice, manufacturers started to shift to retail sales after the pandemic, and retail sales have been rapidly increasing since 2020, attracting demand for snacks when working from home.
Rising consumer health-consciousness and increasing interest in nutrition were already exerting a growing influence on demand in baked goods prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and this trend is set to continue during the forecast period, with the pandemic having created heightened concerns around health, and consumers paying more attention to what they eat. In response to the rising health and wellness trend, manufacturers and retailers are increasingly strengthening their health-oriented product lines, such as reduced-salt bread from Yamazaki Baking Co, the leading player in baked goods in Japan, and low-carb bread from 7-Eleven, one of the major convenience stores in Japan.
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This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: Baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal, not packaged/industrial. While they may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which have in the past been used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available.See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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