While global wheat prices increased steadily in 2022, due to the war in Ukraine, constrained supply levels are set to continue into 2023 , driving further increases in wheat prices and a further spike in unit prices. Estimates suggest that the cost of wheat in a single loaf of bread has increased by 20c since the start of the conflict, and with no end in sight, this is likely to increase further, at least in the short-term.
While the high level of inflation experienced in New Zealand is likely to peak in 2022, it is unlikely to return quickly to pre-COVID levels and as such, the cost-of-living pressures faced by consumers are expected to be protracted over the forecast period. Rising interest rates will place further pressure on household budgets, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to raise the country’s Official Cash Rate to 3% by 2023 in its efforts to combat inflation, which will see mortgage rates continue to rise.
One of the more noteworthy developments within baked goods in 2022 was the relatively rapid withdrawal from packaged cakes by Goodman Fielder through the discontinuation of its Ernest Adams range. While the company’s official explanation of supply chain challenges no doubt contributed to the decision, it is also likely that Goodman Fielder used this issue as an ideal reason to terminate the brand, given changes in consumer preferences and shifts towards health and wellness.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Baked Goods industry in New Zealand with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: Baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal, not packaged/industrial. While they may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which have in the past been used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available.
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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