Per capita consumption of baked goods from retail markedly declined over the review period and the situation has remained the same in 2020. The main reason for this is the health and wellness trend, with gluten-free diets becoming increasingly prevalent.
Retail unit prices for baked goods have been growing steadily throughout the review period, with reasons ranging from growing energy, transportation and flour costs to workers’ higher average salaries, but also manufacturers have been compensating for declining consumption. In 2020, prices have risen faster than in previous years, mainly due to sharp hikes in flour prices, with a huge demand for pasta, both local and abroad, creating a deficit of resources.
Sales of baked goods remain mostly artisanal. Polish customers are used to purchasing baked goods fresh from the oven, whether they buy them in a bakery, discounter, hypermarket or supermarket.
A much smaller channel than retail for baked goods, in 2021 foodservice is set to mostly recover from outlet closures caused by the lockdown. However, this is somewhat dependent on the duration and impact of new regulations, brought in on 17 October in response to rising COVID-19 cases in Poland.
Discounters such as Netto, Dino and Aldi are investing in developing their in-store bakeries. Considering the declining demand for retail baked goods due to the pursuit of healthier lifestyles and the restrictions arising from COVID-19, these strategies are likely to mirror those of Jeronimo Martins and to some extent Lidl.
Instead of specialising and innovating, the focus of players has been on offering low prices to consumers. This has resulted in a lack of innovation within baked goods, with the products already made in other markets on a mass scale, such as superfoods bread, ancient grains bread and high-protein bread.
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This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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