Having recorded consistent declines earlier in the review period due to a worsening economic crisis that drove up prices and eroded purchasing power among Argentinians, baked goods looks set to post robust growth in retail volume sales for 2020 as a whole. The return to growth has been underpinned by increased consumption of leavened bread – the dominant product type in this category – since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dessert mixes is expected to be the most dynamic performer within baked goods in retail volume and current value growth terms in 2020. While this is partly because sales are emerging from a comparatively low base, the category has also benefited as lockdown measures and social distancing have left many consumers with more time for preparing home-made desserts.
Artisanal producers dominate baked goods in Argentina. Artisanal products are more affordable than packaged/industrial alternatives, and widely perceived as being made with higher quality ingredients.
While the recovery in baked goods retail volume sales looks set to continue into 2021, growth is likely to slow slightly. This is mainly because the anticipated easing of the COVID-19 pandemic will result in consumers spending less time at home.
Unpackaged pastries and unpackaged cakes are expected to show the fastest growth in retail volume sales over the forecast period. Both categories should benefit as gradual economic improvements reduce pressure on household budgets and allow Argentinians to increase spending on non-essentials.
Traditional grocery retailers will continue to dominate baked goods distribution in Argentina over the forecast period. However, their overall value share could decline if the government decides to once again temporarily scrap VAT on essential foods like bread.
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This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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