Baked good has been registering volume decline throughout the review and the story is no different in 2021, with a slight decrease in volume sales expected. This continuing downward decline is due to consumers perceiving baked goods for the most part to be unhealthy.
While Kyivkhlib and Roshen are the two largest branded players in baked goods as a whole, there shares still pale into insignificance in comparison to the dominant share held by artisanal goods, which account for almost two thirds of retail value sales. Large bread manufacturer Khlibni Investytsiyi opened a new factory near Kiev for producing frozen baked goods during the review period, with another line introduced in May 2021 (see above).
A main obstacle to volume growth in 2021 is significant price increases, especially for cakes. The price rises have been caused by the wholesale increase in prices of key ingredients.
Baked good will register minimal constant value growth over the forecast period. Those players that adopt a healthier positioning will fare better, though they will have to ensure it is affordable to register a boost.
Large cakes producers like Roshen and Kyivkhlib lose value share to new fast-growing players like La Tarta and also private label. Private label will gain value share due to its affordability and also due to growing trust among consumers about the quality of private label products.
Certain products will perform well over the forecast period. For instance, there will be strong demand for packaged burger buns and also unpackaged freshly, baked pastries.
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This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: Baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal, not packaged/industrial. While they may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which have in the past been used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available.See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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