In 2020, baked goods will be affected by the curfew restrictions imposed in Guatemala due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, foodservice volume is expected to sharply decline in 2020 due to mandated closures of non-essential businesses, including horeca outlets, in correspondence with national lockdown restrictions.
In 2020, packaged leavened bread is set to post the most dynamic current value growth, although other types of bread are set to grow at a very similar rate, only slightly slower. Interestingly, cakes is also experiencing a boost in sales in 2020, projected to post much higher current value growth than was seen the previous year.
In 2020, artisanal products maintain their dominance of sales of baked goods in Guatemala, accounting for more than three quarters of current retail value sales. Artisanal baked goods, mainly bread and tortillas, are still very important in Guatemalans’ daily lives, with these products being bought daily in bakeries or artisanal tortillerias, which usually make them fresh three times a day.
Following the anticipated strong year of current value growth in 2020, baked goods is set to experience a slower rate of current value growth in 2021. Furthermore, retail volume growth may even experience a decline in 2021, but this will mostly be a result of the resurgence of foodservice outlets.
In the forecast period, dessert mixes is set to record the most dynamic CAGR in current value terms, albeit from a small base. Part of this growth is expected to result from supermarkets entering online sales in 2020 as a response to COVID-19.
Digitalisation will play a prominent role in the success of companies in the forecast period. Indeed, many companies and retailers turned to delivery services in order to impulse purchases in 2020.
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This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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