Rice, pasta and, to a lesser extent, noodles will all see an acceleration in retail volume sales during 2020. Stockpiling during the early stages of the pandemic will be the main driver of this.
Pasta, noodles and particularly rice have traditional played an important role in the Uzbek diet, and sales of unpackaged products remain high. However, rising consumer concerns regarding the quality and hygiene of unpackaged products and the wider availability of packaged alternatives is helping to drive growth in retail current value sales of packaged rice, pasta and noodles.
Retail value sales of rice are extremely fragmented, with most distributors and retailers purchasing rice in bulk from large importers like Eco-Planning and packaging it themselves. These generic products will account for almost 90% of value sales of rice during 2020.
There will be a sharp slowdown in the growth of both retail current value and retail volume sales of rice, pasta and noodles during 2021. Volume sales of noodles will even decline slightly.
Given the importance of rice, pasta and noodles in the traditional Uzbek diet, population growth will act as a strong driver of demand growth for these products over the course of the forecast period. The importance of population growth to retail volume sales growth could be reinforced by a difficult economic environment: As a dietary staple, rice is both affordable and a familiar source of comfort for consumers.
Dried pasta will be the top performer in rice, pasta and noodles in terms of both retail current value and retail volume sales growth during the forecast period. Per-capita retail volume sales of dried pasta are still quite low – at least in comparison to rice – and an expanding assortment across all price segments and promotional offers on premium brands like Barilla and Grand di Pasta are also likely to boost demand.
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