Rice, Pasta and Noodles in Sweden

2020 IMPACT

Coronavirus (COVID-19) leads to high stockpiling, while consumers also turn to familiar staples during the pandemic to produce a spike in sales

Rice, pasta and noodles was one of the packaged food categories to experience the most highest levels of stockpiling in the initial stages of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The long shelf life of these products made them popular “just in case” options as consumers spent longer hours in the home.

Plain noodles sees the highest retail growth rates by offering versatile and trendy meal options as home consumption occasions increase

Rice and pasta have benefited strongly from the increase in at-home consumption occasions during the pandemic, as fear of infection, economic constraints, social distancing rules and limits on the number of customers reduce the appeal of visits to restaurants for meals. Sales of rice and dried pasta, in particular, have received a boost from initial stockpiling and the ongoing interest in familiar and versatile meal components.

Household economic constraints and good price-quality ratios enhance the position of private label during the pandemic

The major retailer ICA Sverige is expected to remain the leading player in rice and pasta over 2020 as a whole, well clear of second-placed Axfood, another private label player. In general, private label has increased the pressure on branded alternatives, with marginal-to-slight retail value share growth anticipated in dried and chilled pasta and rice over 2020 as a whole.

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

A slowdown is expected in 2021 as key pandemic growth drivers weaken, but the popularity and development of rice and pasta promise subsequent upturn

The high level of stockpiling during the pandemic is expected to see a strong drop off in retail volume and value (at constant 2020 prices) growth in 2021, with many households sufficiently stocked with rice and pasta, in particular. Moreover, as consumers return to work, study and social norms, including more frequent visits to foodservice establishments, the number of at-home consumption occasions is set to be reduced.

Manufacturers expected to invest in healthier options and newer and more dynamic consumer base to drive value growth

The health and wellness trend is predicted to remain the key driver of value sales growth in the forecast period. As healthy eating concerns have been intensified by the pandemic, consumers are expected to step up their search for healthier alternatives to traditional refined pasta and rice, with whole wheat, free from gluten and bean/linseed options set to grow in popularity.

Plain noodles is set to register the fastest growth as Asian food grows in popularity, range and availability

The growing interest in Asian food is predicted to continue to boost sales of plain noodles. The instant format is projected to see steady declines in retail volume and value (at constant 2020 prices) sales through the forecast period, as the health and wellness trend sees consumers turn away from these perceived artificial and unhealthy products, despite their easy-to-prepare and convenience attributes.