Nappies/Diapers/Pants in New Zealand

PRE-COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

Declining birth rate hampers a category in which practicality and affordability remain important

New Zealand continues to see a record low fertility rate, which is expected to constrain growth of nappies/diapers/pants over the forecast period. The total fertility rate in New Zealand decreased for every age group, however the decline was predominantly due to fewer births among women under the age of 30, with women in the 30-34 age group having the highest fertility rate, according to trade sources.

Eco-friendly brands gaining in importance in nappies/diapers/pants

The nappies/diapers/pants positive value growth in 2019 was strongly driven by the launch of sustainable/eco-brands. The environmentally-friendly domestic start-up business Little & Brave gained momentum in 2019, after its launch of 100% biodegradable disposable nappies/diapers/pants in 2018.

Kimberly-Clark and Asaleo Care dominate nappies/diapers/pants

Nappies/diapers/pants is clearly led by the multinational player Kimberly-Clark, which holds the largest value and volume share with its Huggies brand. The Huggies brand has carved a strong position for Kimberly-Clark New Zealand, benefiting from a large distribution network.

2020 AND BEYOND

COVID-19 impact

Sales of nappies/diapers/pants are now expected to increase by 1% in 2019 constant value terms in 2020, up from the 1% decline forecast in 2019 constant value terms in our 2020 edition of tissue and hygiene published in February 2020 (pre-COVID-19). Parents have been buying significantly more nappies/diapers/pants during the COVID-19 outbreak, perhaps due to initial stockpiling for fear that there might be shortages of these products but also perhaps due to the closure of nurseries, meaning that more nappy changing is being done at home.

Affected products within nappies/diapers/pants

While all products across nappies/diapers/pants are expected to record stronger performances at constant 2019 prices in 2020 than they did in 2019, disposable pants will continue to be the most dynamic product, with this trend seemingly unaffected by COVID-19.

Recovery and opportunities

After what is likely to have been a fair amount of initial stockpiling of nappies/diapers/pants by parents in New Zealand, resulting in an expected increase in value sales at constant 2019 prices in 2020, 2021 is expected to see a much worse performance by these products than the forecast in 2019 constant value terms in our 2020 edition of tissue and hygiene published in February 2020 (pre-COVID-19). This will mean that the overall forecast period CAGRs will be broadly in line with each other, with a modest decline expected in the annual average growth rate for these products.

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