Nappies/Diapers/Pants in Lithuania

PRE-COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

Stagnant birth rate and falling population keep sales on the slide

The category in 2019 continued to experience fairly strong volume sales declines in Lithuania in 2019. As the performance of nappies/diapers/pants is directly affected by birth rates, the latter’s low level and stagnancy did not help sales late in the review period.

Multinational names dominate for now but competition is increasing

Nappies/diapers/pants has a highly consolidated competitive landscape, with international players The Procter & Gamble Co and Kimberly-Clark Corp continuing to lead the category with strong retail value shares in 2019. The strong presence on the shelves of their well-known brands, headed by Pampers and Huggies, has established very high brand awareness for these players, which also benefit from well-developed distribution networks across a range of channels.

Lithuanians are having children later, some not at all

It was not only high emigration rates causing the country’s birth rate to remain low in 2019, but also changes in lifestyles. Historically, bringing up a child, having a job and getting married were associated with maturity in Lithuania, while the socialist society promoted early childbirth with financial support.

2020 AND BEYOND

COVID-19 impact

In 2020, sales of nappies/diapers/pants are expected to decline by 2% in 2019 constant value terms following a revision of data in light of the impact of COVID-19. However, this is the same rate forecast in Euromonitor International’s 2020 edition of tissue and hygiene published in February 2020 (pre-COVID-19).

Affected products within nappies/diapers/pants

Disposable pants is set to continue its double-digit volume growth trajectory in 2020, with consumers still switching from nappies/diapers, especially the standard variety, for the convenience factor. It therefore appears that the higher price of disposable pants compared with nappies/diapers will still not be a hindrance for parents, even amid the economic turbulence created by the pandemic.

Recovery and opportunities

Normalisation in demand levels for nappies/diapers/pants is likely to be quick as the strongest effects of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour dissipate in 2020. Despite the impacts of the declining population over the forecast period, disposable pants is expected to be the only category in nappies/diapers/pants to record retail value and volume growth as parents value the format’s more premium image and convenience.

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