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Demand for tobacco products in Uzbekistan is set to experience a decline in 2020 in response to COVID-19 as local consumers, concerned about their financial situation during the pandemic, are set to reduce their purchases of legitimate cigarettes and turn more towards illicit trade with the latter predicted to record stronger volume growth compared to the previous year. This will be a continuation of a trend already noted at the end of the review period when rising prices of cigarettes pushed them out of reach of lower-income consumers who increasingly switched to illicit trade due to rising excise taxes.
Uzbekistan was among the early adopters of strict measures to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. On 13 March, Uzbekistan suspended flights to France, Spain and the UK.
The largest tobacco category of cigarettes continued to record a low decline in volume terms in 2019 following a series of prices hikes and rising excise tax as the Uzbekistani government continued to drive up unit prices to make this product less attractive to consumers in an attempt to reduce smoking prevalence in the country. Therefore, current value sales continued to record double-digit growth in 2019.
British American Tobacco Uzbekistan (UZBAT) retained its dominance of cigarettes in Uzbekistan in 2019 with a wide product portfolio covering all price segments which includes leading brands Kent, Pall Mall and Viceroy. Due to its local production facilities, competitive pricing has traditionally been a beneficial strategy for the leader, particularly due to a ban on promoting these products.
2021 is set to see further declines in demand for cigarettes following budgetary restrictions during lockdown in the country, while the government may also take the opportunity to further educate the public with health-related warnings linked to smoking, COVID-19 and respiratory complications to strengthen its efforts to reduce smoking prevalence amongst the adult population. Nevertheless, with the average unit price of cigarettes also set to continue rising, monetary concerns are more likely to push consumers towards illicit trade with the latter set to record double-digit volume growth in 2020; both trends are set to soften towards the end of the forecast period as consumers become more relaxed in their spending or less concerned about health warnings as lockdown measures are gradually eased.
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Overview
Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Uzbekistan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.
Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.
If you're in the Tobacco industry in Uzbekistan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.
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This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.
Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.