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Tobacco in New Zealand
August 2022
Tobacco in 2021: The big picture
Smoking prevalence in New Zealand has been falling for several years due to a combination of rising health awareness, regular increases in excise taxes on tobacco products, restrictive legislative measures and educational campaigns aimed at discouraging the habit. Accordingly, while excise-driven price hikes ensured the local tobacco market registered another positive performance in current value growth terms in 2021, retail volume sales of cigarettes, cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco continued to decline as more smokers quit or cut down for the sake of their health and to save money, and fewer young people started smoking.
2021 key trends
Following the passing of the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Vaping) Amendment Act 2020, New Zealand’s government began phasing in a new regulatory regime for e-vapour products in 2021. Notable changes included bans on the advertising of these products and their sale to those under 18 years of age, and the prohibition of vaping in almost all of the same public places where smoking is outlawed.
Competitive landscape
British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd maintained its dominant position in cigarettes in retail volume sales terms in 2021. Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd and Philip Morris (New Zealand) Ltd finished second and third, respectively, and together accounted for the lion’s share of the remaining sales in the category.
Retailing developments
New Zealand was more successful than most countries in containing the initial outbreak and spread of COVID-19, hence there were relatively few restrictions on movement and commercial activity over the first half of 2021. This changed with the emergence of the Delta variant, which resulted in a nationwide hard lockdown being imposed in August.
What next for tobacco?
The performance of tobacco in New Zealand over the forecast period is set to be in keeping with its results in 2021. Regular increases in excise taxes will ensure total current value sales continue to grow at robust rates, with high inflation also expected to fuel the expansion of the market in this regard in the short-to-medium term.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Tobacco industry in New Zealand with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to the following key categories, where applicable:
Cigarettes
Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco
Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco
If you're in the Tobacco industry in New Zealand, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Tobacco in New Zealand report includes:
Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
Detailed segmentation of international and local products
Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
What is the market size of Tobacco in New Zealand?
Which are the leading brands in Tobacco in New Zealand?
How are products distributed in Tobacco in New Zealand?
Which category is the most heavily taxed in New Zealand?
How is the operating environment for Tobacco changing?
What are the current legislative restrictions applicable to the sale of Tobacco products in New Zealand?
How has COVID-19 impacted demand?
How have national lockdown and enforced home seclusion following COVID-19 impacted sales?
Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
Tobacco in New Zealand
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Tobacco in 2021: The big picture
2021 key trends
Competitive landscape
Retailing developments
What next for tobacco?
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
Legislation
Legislative overviewSummary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance
Minimum legal smoking age
Smoking prevalence
Health warnings
Plain packaging
Advertising and sponsorship
Point-of-sale display bans
Smoking in public places
Flavoured tobacco product ban
Vapour products
PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS
MARKET INDICATORS
Table 1 Number of Adult Smokers by Gender 2016-2021
MARKET DATA
Table 2 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021Table 3 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021Table 4 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021Table 5 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021Table 6 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2021-2026Table 7 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2021-2026Table 8 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2021-2026Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026
DISCLAIMER
SOURCES
Summary 2 Research Sources
Cigarettes in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2021 DEVELOPMENTS
Rate of decline in retail volume sales slows but remains deeper than historical norms
Competition from e-vapour products intensifies
Trading down continues as leading players explore diversification opportunities
PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Cigarettes set to face new regulatory hurdles over the forecast period
Practical effects of plan to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes remain uncertain
Adoption of tougher anti-smoking policies risks stimulating illicit trade
TAXATION AND PRICING
Taxation rates
Summary 3 Taxation and Duty Levies 2016-2021
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Summary 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples
CATEGORY DATA
Table 10 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2016-2021Table 11 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2016-2021Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2016-2021Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021Table 14 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2016-2021Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2016-2021Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2016-2021Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2016-2021Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2016-2021Table 19 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2017-2021Table 20 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2018-2021Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2016-2021Table 22 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2016-2021Table 23 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2021-2026Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2021-2026Table 25 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2021-2026Table 26 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026Table 27 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2021-2026Table 28 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2021-2026Table 29 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2021-2026Table 30 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2021-2026Table 31 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2021-2026
Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2021 DEVELOPMENTS
Fine cut tobacco posts steepest volume decline as overall demand continues to fall
Cigarillos shows most resilient performance in retail volume terms
Rate of volume decline in pipe tobacco more stable than in other categories
PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Demand for all product types expected to decline throughout the forecast period
Fine cut tobacco set to remain the worst performing category in retail volume terms
Illicit trade likely to increase following enactment of new anti-smoking legislation
CATEGORY DATA
Table 32 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021Table 33 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021Table 34 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021Table 35 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021Table 36 Sales of Cigars by Size: % Volume 2016-2021Table 37 Sales of Cigarillos by Price Platform 2016-2021Table 38 NBO Company Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2021Table 39 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2018-2021Table 40 NBO Company Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2017-2021Table 41 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2018-2021Table 42 NBO Company Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2021Table 43 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2018-2021Table 44 NBO Company Shares of Smoking Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2021Table 45 LBN Brand Shares of Smoking Tobacco: % Volume 2018-2021Table 46 NBO Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2021Table 47 LBN Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco: % Volume 2018-2021Table 48 NBO Company Shares of Fine Cut Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2021Table 49 LBN Brand Shares of Fine Cut Tobacco: % Volume 2018-2021Table 50 Distribution of Cigars and Cigarillos by Format: % Volume 2016-2021Table 51 Distribution of Smoking Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2016-2021Table 52 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2021-2026Table 53 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2021-2026Table 54 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2021-2026Table 55 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026
Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2021 DEVELOPMENTS
Migration of smokers to vaping gains momentum
New regulatory regime for e-vapour products phased in
Use of heated tobacco products continues to grow rapidly from a low base
PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Tougher anti-smoking laws will reinforce appeal of vaping and heated tobacco
Heated tobacco products set to expand fastest but vaping will remain more popular
Sustainability concerns likely to inhibit demand for single use closed vaping systems
CATEGORY INDICATORS
Table 56 Number of Adult Vapers 2016-2021
CATEGORY DATA
Table 57 Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: Volume 2016-2021Table 58 Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume Growth 2018-2021Table 59 Sales of Heated Tobacco: Volume 2016-2021Table 60 Sales of Heated Tobacco: % Volume Growth 2019-2021Table 61 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021Table 62 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021Table 63 NBO Company Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2017-2021Table 64 LBN Brand Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2018-2021Table 65 Distribution of E-Vapour Products by Format: % Value 2016-2021Table 66 Distribution of Tobacco Heating Devices by Format: % Volume 2016-2021Table 67 Distribution of Heated Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2016-2021Table 68 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: Volume 2021-2026Table 69 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume Growth 2021-2026Table 70 Forecast Sales of Heated Tobacco: Volume 2021-2026Table 71 Forecast Sales of Heated Tobacco: % Volume Growth 2021-2026Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2021-2026Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Tobacco
Fine Cut Cigarettes
Cigars
Cigarillos
Pipe Tobacco
Fine Cut Tobacco
Chewing Tobacco
Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
Swedish-Style Snus
Closed System Single Use
Closed System Rechargeable (including starter kits)
Closed System Cartridges
Open Vaping Systems Charging and Vapourising Devices
E-liquids
Tobacco Heating Devices
Heated Tobacco
Nicotine Pouches
Tobacco
Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.