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Country Report

Tobacco in

Tobacco in Pakistan

Jul 2021

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Executive Summary

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COVID-19 impact on tobacco

The emergence of the pandemic in Pakistan had no significant impact on consumption trends within tobacco in 2020, despite the introduction of restrictions as cases of the virus increased, followed by a national lockdown, as access to tobacco products was unhindered due to major distribution channels such as newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks being permitted to continue trading. However, retail demand for the dominant category of cigarettes continued on its declining trajectory in Pakistan, due to further price increases as a result of ongoing tax hikes as part of the government’s attempt to drive down smoking prevalence in the country amongst the adult population.

COVID-19 country impact

One of the first signs of the unprecedented disruption COVID-19 has caused in Pakistan came in January 2020, when Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) cancelled all flights between the country and China. Following confirmation of the first local cases in late February, from early March the federal government and regional authorities began imposing restrictions to curb the spread of the virus.

Company response

The largest category of cigarettes remained highly consolidated in Pakistan in 2020, with dominant Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd gaining further retail volume share from its closest rival Philip Morris (Pakistan) Ltd, with the leader seeing stable demand for its more affordably-priced Capstan By Pall Mall. While the manufacturing operations of these players were not significantly disrupted by the pandemic, Philip Morris had already been forced to close one of its plants in Kotri in late 2019 due to ongoing declines in demand.

Retailing shift

There was no significant impact on distribution of tobacco as a result of the pandemic in 2020, despite consumers being advised to reduce their time outside of the home as much as possible during the lockdown. Newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks remained the dominant distribution channel for cigarettes in Pakistan in volume terms in 2018, followed by street vendors.

What next for tobacco?

Retail volume sales of cigarettes are predicted to continue to see further declines from 2021 onwards in line with further tax hikes in an attempt by the government to reduce smoking prevalence amongst the adult population. This in turn will place further pressure on leading players to increase their prices, resulting in a predicted further move away from the legal market and further penetration of illicit trade, which is set to move closer to half of all volume sales of cigarettes by 2025.

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Tobacco Sample Report Tobacco Sample Data

Overview

Why buy this report?

Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Pakistan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Pakistan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Pakistan for free:

The Tobacco in Pakistan market research report includes:

Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
Detailed segmentation of international and local products
Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

What is the market size of Tobacco in Pakistan?
What are the major brands in Pakistan?
Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Pakistan?
Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Pakistan?
Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Pakistan?
Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Pakistan in terms of market share?
What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Pakistan?

Why buy this report?

Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

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Request more information

Tobacco in Pakistan

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COVID-19 impact on tobacco

COVID-19 country impact

Company response

Retailing shift

What next for tobacco?

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

Legislative overview
Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

Tar levels

Health warnings

Plain packaging

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Flavoured tobacco product ban

Reduced harm

Vapour products

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

MARKET INDICATORS

Table 1 Number of Adult Smokers by Gender 2015-2020

MARKET DATA

Table 2 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 3 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 4 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 5 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 6 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 7 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 8 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT

DISCLAIMER

SOURCES

Summary 2 Research Sources

Cigarettes in Pakistan

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Pandemic has no significant impact on cigarettes in 2020, with ongoing declines in retail volume sales linked to further price increases, resulting in greater penetration of illicit trade

No major disruptions for distribution of cigarettes in 2020 although there are marginal share gains for smaller channels

Pakistan Tobacco strengthens dominance of cigarettes in 2020, while Philip Morris sees stronger declines following closure of Kotri manufacturing plant

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Further tax hikes set to result in greater share gain for illicit trade

Marginal decline in smoking prevalence but population growth will drive up overall numbers

High tar yield expected to remain popular due to lack of legislation

TAXATION AND PRICING

Taxation rates

Summary 3 Taxation and Duty Levies 2015-2020

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

Summary 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

CATEGORY DATA

Table 10 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2015-2020
Table 11 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 14 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 19 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 20 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 22 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2015-2020
Table 23 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2020-2025
Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 25 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 26 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 27 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 28 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 29 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 30 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 31 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2020-2025

Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco in Pakistan

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Niche of cigars is largely unaffected by pandemic due to affluent consumer base

Distribution of cigars mainly limited to tobacco specialists in major cities

Highly consolidated competitive landscape dominated by Imperial Tobacco Co Ltd

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Further expansion of target audience in line with population growth offers positive outlook for cigars

Price increases set to drive up value growth

Illicit trade still present but not a significant threat compared to cigarettes

CATEGORY DATA

Table 32 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 33 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 34 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 35 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 36 Sales of Cigars by Size: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 37 NBO Company Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 38 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 39 NBO Company Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 40 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 41 Distribution of Cigars and Cigarillos by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco in Pakistan

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Niche of e-vapour products continues to expand with no significant impact of pandemic on its positive growth trajectory in 2020

Urban locations continue to drive demand for e-vapour products

Highly fragmented competitive landscape with lack of consumer loyalty

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

E-vapour products potential for further expansion due to population growth and improving economy

Negative media reports and potential for introduction of legislation only negative factors to halt strong growth trajectory of e-vapour products in Pakistan

E-commerce likely to gain further share of distribution, driven by urban young adults

CATEGORY INDICATORS

Table 46 Number of Adult Vapers 2015-2020

CATEGORY DATA

Table 47 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 48 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 49 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 50 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 51 Sales of E-Liquids by Nicotene Strength: % Value 2018-2020
Table 52 NBO Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 53 LBN Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 54 NBO Company Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2016-2020
Table 55 LBN Brand Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2017-2020
Table 56 Distribution of Smokeless Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 57 Distribution of E-Vapour Products by Format: % Value 2015-2020
Table 58 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 59 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 60 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 61 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Megatrends

Country Report

Tobacco in Pakistan

New Report Guarantee

Executive Summary

New Report Guarantee

COVID-19 impact on tobacco

COVID-19 country impact

Company response

Retailing shift

What next for tobacco?

Samples

Overview

Why buy this report?

Samples: FAQs about samples

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Pakistan

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COVID-19 impact on tobacco

COVID-19 country impact

Company response

Retailing shift

What next for tobacco?

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

Tar levels

Health warnings

Plain packaging

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Flavoured tobacco product ban

Reduced harm

Vapour products

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

MARKET INDICATORS

MARKET DATA

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT

DISCLAIMER

SOURCES

Cigarettes in Pakistan

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Pandemic has no significant impact on cigarettes in 2020, with ongoing declines in retail volume sales linked to further price increases, resulting in greater penetration of illicit trade

No major disruptions for distribution of cigarettes in 2020 although there are marginal share gains for smaller channels

Pakistan Tobacco strengthens dominance of cigarettes in 2020, while Philip Morris sees stronger declines following closure of Kotri manufacturing plant

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Further tax hikes set to result in greater share gain for illicit trade

Marginal decline in smoking prevalence but population growth will drive up overall numbers

High tar yield expected to remain popular due to lack of legislation

TAXATION AND PRICING

Taxation rates

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

CATEGORY DATA

Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco in Pakistan

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Niche of cigars is largely unaffected by pandemic due to affluent consumer base

Distribution of cigars mainly limited to tobacco specialists in major cities

Highly consolidated competitive landscape dominated by Imperial Tobacco Co Ltd

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Further expansion of target audience in line with population growth offers positive outlook for cigars

Price increases set to drive up value growth

Illicit trade still present but not a significant threat compared to cigarettes

CATEGORY DATA

Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco in Pakistan

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Niche of e-vapour products continues to expand with no significant impact of pandemic on its positive growth trajectory in 2020

Urban locations continue to drive demand for e-vapour products

Highly fragmented competitive landscape with lack of consumer loyalty

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

E-vapour products potential for further expansion due to population growth and improving economy

Negative media reports and potential for introduction of legislation only negative factors to halt strong growth trajectory of e-vapour products in Pakistan

E-commerce likely to gain further share of distribution, driven by urban young adults

CATEGORY INDICATORS