Tobacco in Denmark

Tobacco in Denmark

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COVID-19 impact on tobacco

COVID-19 country impact

Company response

Retailing shift

What next for tobacco?

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

Legislative overview
Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

Tar levels

Health warnings

Plain packaging

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) cigarette regulation

Flavoured tobacco product ban

Reduced harm

Vapour products

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

MARKET INDICATORS

Table 1 Number of Adult Smokers by Gender 2015-2020

MARKET DATA

Table 2 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 3 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 4 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 5 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 6 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 7 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 8 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT

DISCLAIMER

SOURCES

Summary 2 Research Sources

Cigarettes in Denmark

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Significant tax increases provide a boon for illicit trade, although the closure of the country’s borders lessen this effect somewhat

Philip Morris and British American Tobacco absorb a proportion of the tax rises in a bid to minimise losses in volume sales

Companies become more innovative in response to the ban on menthol in cigarettes

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Tax rises achieve strong support from the public and reduce volume sales of cigarettes over the forecast period

Younger generations eschew cigarettes thanks to government efforts to reduce the smoking rate

Younger audience of smoking age attracted by heated tobacco and increasingly eschew cigarettes

TAXATION AND PRICING

Taxation rates

Summary 3 Taxation and Duty Levies 2015-2020

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

Summary 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

CATEGORY DATA

Table 10 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2015-2020
Table 11 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 14 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 19 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 20 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 22 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2015-2020
Table 23 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2020-2025
Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 25 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 26 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 27 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 28 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 29 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 30 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 31 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2020-2025

Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco in Denmark

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Home seclusion, the closure of bars and cigar clubs and border restrictions impact category sales in 2020

Pandemic provides strong boost for e-commerce

Cigars benefits from premiumisation trend as smokers enduring lockdown spend more money on higher-end cigars

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Further tax rises in January 2022 have little negative impact on sales of cigars due to the more exclusive nature of these products compared to cigarettes

Contraction in forecast period volume sales as society reopens, the health trend gathers momentum and all but core consumers remain in the category

Growth in e-commerce over the forecast period as consumers come to appreciate the convenience and wider product choice of this channel

CATEGORY DATA

Table 32 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 33 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 34 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 35 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 36 Sales of Cigars by Size: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 37 Sales of Cigarillos by Price Platform 2015-2020
Table 38 NBO Company Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 39 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 40 NBO Company Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 41 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 42 NBO Company Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 43 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 44 NBO Company Shares of Smoking Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 45 LBN Brand Shares of Smoking Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 46 NBO Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 47 LBN Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 48 NBO Company Shares of Fine Cut Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 49 LBN Brand Shares of Fine Cut Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 50 Distribution of Cigars and Cigarillos by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 51 Distribution of Smoking Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 52 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 53 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 54 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 55 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco in Denmark

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Strong growth in chewing tobacco especially among consumers under the legal smoking age

Wide variety of flavours and lower prices in relation to cigarettes boost the appeal of e-vapour products in 2020

Tax rises in cigarettes benefit heated tobacco in 2020

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Stricter legislation in flavour variants and higher taxes boost illicit trade but attract past consumers of menthol cigarettes

Growth in chewing tobacco due to smoke-free ban in schools and further tax hikes in cigarettes

Promising outlook for heated tobacco due to lower prices and healthier perception compared to cigarettes

CATEGORY INDICATORS

Table 56 Number of Adult Vapers 2015-2020

CATEGORY DATA

Table 57 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 58 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 59 Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: Volume 2015-2020
Table 60 Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume Growth 2016-2020
Table 61 Sales of Heated Tobacco: Volume 2015-2020
Table 62 Sales of Heated Tobacco: % Volume Growth 2016-2020
Table 63 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 64 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 65 Sales of E-Liquids by Nicotene Strength: % Value 2018-2020
Table 66 NBO Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 67 LBN Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 68 NBO Company Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2016-2020
Table 69 LBN Brand Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2017-2020
Table 70 NBO Company Shares of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 71 LBN Brand Shares of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 72 NBO Company Shares of Heated Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 73 LBN Brand Shares of Heated Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 74 Distribution of Smokeless Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 75 Distribution of E-Vapour Products by Format: % Value 2015-2020
Table 76 Distribution of Tobacco Heating Devices by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 77 Distribution of Heated Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 78 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 79 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 80 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: Volume 2020-2025
Table 81 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 82 Forecast Sales of Heated Tobacco: Volume 2020-2025
Table 83 Forecast Sales of Heated Tobacco: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 84 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 85 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine in Denmark

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Producers take advantage of legal loophole around marketing and no restrictions covering the nicotine content of nicotine pouches, with some brands offering much higher levels than cigarettes

Category stimulated by new product launches and innovative flavour variants

Industry players lower their prices in conjunction with tax increases in cigarettes

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Regulations in place from 1 April 2021 reduce the category’s growth potential

Strong and growing share of e-commerce thanks to new regulations

The easing of COVID-19 restrictions shifts location of consumption but has no effect on volume sales

CATEGORY DATA

Table 86 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: Volume 2015-2020
Table 87 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 88 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume Growth 2019-2020
Table 89 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: % Value Growth 2019-2020
Table 90 NBO Company Shares of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 91 LBN Brand Shares of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 92 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: Volume 2020-2025
Table 93 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 94 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 95 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

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