Tobacco in Kenya

August 2022
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Overview:

Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Tobacco industry in Kenya with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.

Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.

Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to the following key categories, where applicable:

  • Cigarettes
  • Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco
  • Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Kenya, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.

The Tobacco in Kenya report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country

This report answers:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Kenya?
  • Which are the leading brands in Tobacco in Kenya?
  • How are products distributed in Tobacco in Kenya?
  • Which category is the most heavily taxed in Kenya?
  • How is the operating environment for Tobacco changing?
  • What are the current legislative restrictions applicable to the sale of Tobacco products in Kenya?
  • How has COVID-19 impacted demand?
  • How have national lockdown and enforced home seclusion following COVID-19 impacted sales?
  • Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?

Tobacco in Kenya

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco in 2021: The big picture
2021 key trends
Competitive landscape
Retailing developments
What next for tobacco?

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation
Legislative overview Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance
Minimum legal smoking age
Smoking prevalence
Tar levels
Health warnings
Plain packaging
Advertising and sponsorship
Point-of-sale display bans
Smoking in public places
Low ignition propensity (LIP) cigarette regulation
Flavoured tobacco product ban
Reduced harm
Vapour products

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

MARKET INDICATORS

Table 1 Number of Adult Smokers by Gender 2016-2021

MARKET DATA

Table 2 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021 Table 3 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021 Table 4 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021 Table 5 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021 Table 6 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2021-2026 Table 7 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2021-2026 Table 8 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2021-2026 Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026

DISCLAIMER

SOURCES

Summary 2 Research Sources

Cigarettes in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2021 DEVELOPMENTS

High taxation imposed on cigarettes puts pressure on volume sales
Manufacturers focus on producing inexpensive products of a sufficient quality to differentiate them from counterfeits
British American Tobacco explores new export markets as Kenyan sales dip

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Sales set stabilise with the re-opening of the economy
Miraa/khat consumption expected to remain a key sales driver for cigarettes
Rising health concerns are expected to lead to declining sales

TAXATION AND PRICING

Taxation rates
Summary 3 Taxation and Duty Levies 2016-2021
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Summary 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

CATEGORY DATA

Table 10 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2016-2021 Table 11 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2016-2021 Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2016-2021 Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021 Table 14 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2016-2021 Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2016-2021 Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2016-2021 Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2016-2021 Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2016-2021 Table 19 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2017-2021 Table 20 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2018-2021 Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2016-2021 Table 22 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2016-2021 Table 23 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2021-2026 Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2021-2026 Table 25 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2021-2026 Table 26 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026 Table 27 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2021-2026 Table 28 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2021-2026 Table 29 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2021-2026 Table 30 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2021-2026 Table 31 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2021-2026

Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2021 DEVELOPMENTS

E-commerce thriving in post-pandemic Kenya
Upcoming general elections are expected to drive price increases for cigars and cigarillos
Wealthier consumers continue to drive demand for cigars as a symbol of success

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Resumption of economic activity and the return of tourism spells good news for cigars and cigarillos
International brands will continue to dominate
The fight for gender equality spilling over into demand for cigars and cigarillos

CATEGORY DATA

Table 32 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021 Table 33 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021 Table 34 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021 Table 35 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021 Table 36 Sales of Cigars by Size: % Volume 2016-2021 Table 37 Sales of Cigarillos by Price Platform 2016-2021 Table 38 NBO Company Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2021 Table 39 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2018-2021 Table 40 NBO Company Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2017-2021 Table 41 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2018-2021 Table 42 NBO Company Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2021 Table 43 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2018-2021 Table 44 Distribution of Cigars and Cigarillos by Format: % Volume 2016-2021 Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2021-2026 Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2021-2026 Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2021-2026 Table 48 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026
The following categories and subcategories are included:

Tobacco

      • Fine Cut Cigarettes
      • Cigars
      • Cigarillos
      • Pipe Tobacco
      • Fine Cut Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
          • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
        • Swedish-Style Snus
        • Closed System Single Use
          • Closed System Rechargeable (including starter kits)
          • Closed System Cartridges
        • Open Vaping Systems Charging and Vapourising Devices
        • E-liquids
      • Tobacco Heating Devices
      • Heated Tobacco
      • Nicotine Pouches

Tobacco

Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.

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This report originates from Passport, our Tobacco research and analysis database.

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