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Tobacco in Kenya
August 2022
Tobacco in 2021: The big picture
Businesses and consumer incomes started to recover in 2021 after the negative impact of COVID-19 on the local economy, however this recovery did not translate into retail volume growth in cigarettes, although sales of cigars and cigarillos did stabilise. Tobacco sales were negatively impacted by the impact of COVID-19 with the government’s ban on social gatherings, outdoor events and clubs, coupled with increased health concerns and economic constraints all serving to limit demand for tobacco.
2021 key trends
Premium brands lost share following the outbreak of COVID-19 owing to consumers becoming more budget conscious and thus turning to cheaper mid-priced and economy brands. This was compounded by the annual increase in taxes which raised the price of cigarettes even higher.
Competitive landscape
Cigarettes in Kenya is dominated by two companies – British American Tobacco and Mastermind Tobacco – with Philip Morris International Inc being the only other player now present in the market. There were no new entrants in tobacco in Kenya in 2021.
Retailing developments
Grocery retailers remains the most preferred retail channel for purchasing cigarettes. Very few consumers buy their cigarettes through online platforms, with most people looking to buy their cigarettes from convenient locations such as kiosks and street vendors and social places where they smoke.
What next for tobacco?
Although e-cigarettes are not common in the Kenyan market, there are a small number of mid-income consumers who use them and who can afford to do so. There is a growing awareness of the potential use of e-vapour products to help smokers quit, with some people perceiving them to be less harmful.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Tobacco industry in Kenya with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to the following key categories, where applicable:
Cigarettes
Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco
Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco
If you're in the Tobacco industry in Kenya, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Tobacco in Kenya report includes:
Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
Detailed segmentation of international and local products
Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
What is the market size of Tobacco in Kenya?
Which are the leading brands in Tobacco in Kenya?
How are products distributed in Tobacco in Kenya?
Which category is the most heavily taxed in Kenya?
How is the operating environment for Tobacco changing?
What are the current legislative restrictions applicable to the sale of Tobacco products in Kenya?
How has COVID-19 impacted demand?
How have national lockdown and enforced home seclusion following COVID-19 impacted sales?
Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
Tobacco in Kenya
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Tobacco in 2021: The big picture
2021 key trends
Competitive landscape
Retailing developments
What next for tobacco?
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
Legislation
Legislative overviewSummary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance
Table 1 Number of Adult Smokers by Gender 2016-2021
MARKET DATA
Table 2 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021Table 3 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021Table 4 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021Table 5 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021Table 6 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2021-2026Table 7 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2021-2026Table 8 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2021-2026Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026
DISCLAIMER
SOURCES
Summary 2 Research Sources
Cigarettes in Kenya
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2021 DEVELOPMENTS
High taxation imposed on cigarettes puts pressure on volume sales
Manufacturers focus on producing inexpensive products of a sufficient quality to differentiate them from counterfeits
British American Tobacco explores new export markets as Kenyan sales dip
PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Sales set stabilise with the re-opening of the economy
Miraa/khat consumption expected to remain a key sales driver for cigarettes
Rising health concerns are expected to lead to declining sales
TAXATION AND PRICING
Taxation rates
Summary 3 Taxation and Duty Levies 2016-2021
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Summary 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples
CATEGORY DATA
Table 10 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2016-2021Table 11 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2016-2021Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2016-2021Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021Table 14 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2016-2021Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2016-2021Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2016-2021Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2016-2021Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2016-2021Table 19 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2017-2021Table 20 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2018-2021Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2016-2021Table 22 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2016-2021Table 23 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2021-2026Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2021-2026Table 25 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2021-2026Table 26 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026Table 27 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2021-2026Table 28 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2021-2026Table 29 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2021-2026Table 30 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2021-2026Table 31 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2021-2026
Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco in Kenya
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2021 DEVELOPMENTS
E-commerce thriving in post-pandemic Kenya
Upcoming general elections are expected to drive price increases for cigars and cigarillos
Wealthier consumers continue to drive demand for cigars as a symbol of success
PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Resumption of economic activity and the return of tourism spells good news for cigars and cigarillos
International brands will continue to dominate
The fight for gender equality spilling over into demand for cigars and cigarillos
CATEGORY DATA
Table 32 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021Table 33 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021Table 34 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021Table 35 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021Table 36 Sales of Cigars by Size: % Volume 2016-2021Table 37 Sales of Cigarillos by Price Platform 2016-2021Table 38 NBO Company Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2021Table 39 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2018-2021Table 40 NBO Company Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2017-2021Table 41 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2018-2021Table 42 NBO Company Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2021Table 43 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2018-2021Table 44 Distribution of Cigars and Cigarillos by Format: % Volume 2016-2021Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2021-2026Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2021-2026Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2021-2026Table 48 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2021-2026
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Tobacco
Fine Cut Cigarettes
Cigars
Cigarillos
Pipe Tobacco
Fine Cut Tobacco
Chewing Tobacco
Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
Swedish-Style Snus
Closed System Single Use
Closed System Rechargeable (including starter kits)
Closed System Cartridges
Open Vaping Systems Charging and Vapourising Devices
E-liquids
Tobacco Heating Devices
Heated Tobacco
Nicotine Pouches
Tobacco
Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.