Tobacco in Kenya

COVID-19 impact on tobacco

In 2020, the Kenyan tobacco market, and especially cigarettes, continues to be constrained by health concerns and high product costs that are lowering smoking prevalence and by a host of ongoing and new restrictions on marketing, import and sales of tobacco that impact the ability of habitual smokers to maintain their habit. Lockdowns and social distancing measures taken by the Kenyan government to prevent the spread of COVID-19 at the onset of the pandemic have not had a significant direct impact on the growth trajectory of tobacco products in the country.

COVID-19 country impact

On 27 March, in response to the threat of COVID-19, Kenya instituted a nationwide dusk-to-dawn curfew from 19.00hrs to 05.

Tax hikes and higher prices result in reduced demand from some smokers, while others that find it hard to quit seek alternatives that boost illicit trade in 2019

In 2019, the Kenyan government increased the excise duty on cigarettes again, to the point that taxes constitute 35% of the retail price of a pack of 20. The overall decline in tobacco retail volume sales can be attributed to these price increases, as they have forced many Kenyan consumers, especially low-income ones, to either quit smoking cigarettes altogether or to reduce the number of sticks they smoke per day.

British American Tobacco Kenya, the dominant player in cigarettes, widens its distribution through cigarette stalls and introduces nicotine pouches in 2019

British American Tobacco (BAT) Kenya increased its dominance in cigarettes in 2019; besides its other strengths the company expanded its distribution through its own cigarette stalls and generated interest with its introduction of nicotine pouches over the year. BAT Kenya has manufacturing facilities in Nairobi and Thika, and the majority of its products are sold by retailers that are supplied by the company’s distributors.

Growing health concerns, ongoing increases in taxes, prices and tobacco regulations are expected to result in reduced smoking prevalence over the forecast period

Regardless of potential economic impacts on Kenya that may result from a pandemic-related global recession, smoking prevalence is expected to continue declining over the forecast period due to higher taxes and price increases, which will lead many smokers to quit or reduce the number of cigarettes they smoke in a day due to affordability issues, and to rising health concerns, as many smokers will continue to quit for fear of getting cancer, especially lung cancer. Government antismoking campaigns coupled with high taxes on tobacco products are expected to be the most effective tobacco control policies for improving the public health.

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