While tobacco in Nigeria showed an improved performance in current value growth terms in 2022, this was mainly due to unit price hikes resulting from tax increases and inflationary pressures fuelled by the global recovery from the pandemic, the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the depreciation of the naira. With high inflation eroding purchasing power and causing the general cost of living to soar, rapidly rising prices gave smokers a greater incentive to cut down or kick the habit and made young people less inclined to start smoking in the first place, while also stimulating a dramatic resurgence in illicit trade.
In tandem with the rapid expansion of Nigeria’s population, the total number of smokers in the country increased in 2022. However, the rate of smoking prevalence among adults stagnated.
British American Tobacco remained the dominant player in cigarettes in Nigeria in retail volume sales terms in 2022 thanks to a broad portfolio that spans all price segments and boasts well-established and widely available brands such as Rothmans, Pall Mall, Benson & Hedges and London King Size. However, in keeping with the trend observed throughout the review period, its volume share declined from 2021 due to a growing challenge from rivals with more competitive pricing strategies.
Small local grocers remained the dominant distribution channel in cigarettes, smoking tobacco and smokeless tobacco in Nigeria in 2022. It was also the leading channel in cigars and cigarillos, closely followed by hospitality.
The outlook for tobacco in Nigeria over the forecast period is broadly favourable, with robust growth in total current value sales projected and most categories set to expand steadily in volume terms. Current value growth will be skewed somewhat by unit price hikes resulting from further increases in taxation, but with inflationary pressures likely to ease in the short-to-medium term, a gradual recovery in consumer purchasing power should help to ensure overall demand remains buoyant.
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Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to the following key categories, where applicable:
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Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Tobacco research and analysis database.
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