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For decades, butter has been eyed suspiciously by the US health and scientific community, with consumers being warned about the dangers inherent in consuming a product containing such high levels of fat and cholesterol. Butter has been blamed for producing a plethora of negative health effects, and for decades its consumption has been linked by nutritionists to a high risk of developing health problems, in particular high cholesterol, which is said to lead to heart disease. This butter doctrine, traditionally enjoying wide acceptance within the US health community, had a powerful effect on consumers, leading many to limit their intake of butter or avoid it entirely, with many of them opting to purchase vegetable-based butter alternatives, most notably margarine.
By a large margin, Land O’ Lakes, which focuses almost exclusively on butter products, and Unilever United States, maker of the well-known margarine and spreads brands Country Crock and I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter!, lead butter and margarine. They accounted for 22% and 16% shares of value sales respectively in 2017; the next closest company, ConAgra Brands, held just a 5% share. Despite their positions at the top of the category, Land O’ Lakes and Unilever had highly divergent sales performances in recent years, with Land O’ Lakes registering consistent strong growth and Unilever declining sharply, in a strong reflection of the consumer shift toward heavier butter consumption. From 2012 to 2017, a period which saw Land O’ Lakes overtake Unilever at the top of the category, Land O’ Lakes posted a value CAGR of 6%, whilst Unilever’s value CAGR declined over the same period, at a rate of 4%. Whilst Unilever held a value share of 21% in butter and margarine in 2012, this share fell to just 16% by 2017. As a result of Unilever’s significant losses, and with a realisation that there is likely no end in sight for the decline in margarine consumption, the company announced in March 2017 that it would sell off its margarine brands. Despite its aim to shed this portion of its business, however, at the time of publication Unilever had still not found a buyer.
Over the forecast period, butter and margarine is expected to see a similar performance overall, with growth rates highly aligned with those of the review period and similar trends driving these rates. Whilst volume sales declined over the review period, with a negative CAGR of 2%, they are projected to decline by slightly less over the forecast period, with a negative CAGR of 1%, reaching 734,000 tonnes in 2022. In value terms at constant 2017 prices, the category is projected to mirror this development, with an improved CAGR of 2%, reaching USD5.5 billion in 2022. These trends are projected to remain largely consistent, resulting from continued significant declines for margarine and spreads and sustained strong growth for butter; a dynamic that will continue to create the effect of restraining the growth of the category to moderate levels. Butter is projected to see a volume CAGR of 4% and a value CAGR of 4% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach 386,000 tonnes and USD3.8 billion in 2022. Margarine and spreads, on the other hand, is set to witness a negative volume CAGR of 7% and a negative value CAGR of 3% at constant 2017 prices, to reach 295,000 tonnes and USD1.5 billion.
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