Fragrances in Bulgaria

PRE-COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

Widening range of mass fragrances and discounting fuel growth in 2019

The widening variety and distribution of mass fragrances stimulated consumer interest in the category at the end of the review period, with 2019 seeing good sales growth. Bulgarian consumers’ price-sensitivity in particular benefited the performance of brands that are copies of brands in premium fragrances, with these dupes seeing growing interest and viewed as higher in quality than illegal counterfeits.

Counterfeits and travel purchases hinder premium fragrance sales in 2019 but luxury retail expansion supports growth

Bulgarian consumers increasingly enjoyed holidays in other countries during the review period, with a rise in duty free and travel purchases limiting growth for premium fragrances sales within Bulgaria in 2019. Bulgarians increasingly made duty free purchases from international airports or enjoyed buying fragrances from retailers while during foreign travel, with these appealing not only due to often offering attractive discounts but also due to counterfeiting concerns.

Upper mass and economy fragrances benefit from growing presence in stores in 2019, posing competition for Avon

Direct selling remained significant within fragrances in 2019, with Avon remaining the leading player in the year despite a loss of share. Avon suffered from the widening availability of upper mass brands in stores, particularly via drugstores/parapharmacies, with these posing growing competition.

2020 AND BEYOND

COVID-19 impact

Sales of fragrances are now expected to decline by 17% in 2020 in 2019 constant value terms in light of the impact of COVID-19. This compares to an expected 2% rise forecast for 2020 during research conducted at the end of 2019 before the spread of COVID-19.

Affected products within fragrances

All product areas across fragrances are expected to see sharp double-digit retail volume and value decline at constant 2019 prices in 2020 over the previous year, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The hardest-hit product areas will be unisex fragrances, which were increasingly fashionable towards the end of the review period but have few loyal customers.

Recovery and opportunities

Following the sharp decline seen in retail volume and value at constant 2019 prices in 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown and increased economic uncertainty, there will be a degree of recovery in 2021. However, growth will remain muted for the remaining years of the forecast period and all product areas are expected to see overall value decline at constant 2019 prices.

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