Fragrances in Nigeria

PRE-COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

Economic recovery and Western lifestyle trends fuelling sales

Fragrances is expected to grow strongly over the forecast period, having seen a slowdown in growth since 2016 due to the negative impact of very high price increases and a weak economy. Growth will be driven by an improving economy, increase in the middle-income population, rising number of women in employment, and ongoing urbanisation.

Value sales supported by premium nature of fragrances brands

Since fragrances are considered prestige products, premium brands are expected to continue to perform well. In particular, women’s premium fragrances is expected to perform especially strongly over the forecast period.

Global players benefit from fashionable image and reputation for quality

Estée Lauder remains the leading fragrances player in Nigeria. The company’s strong position is based mainly on its wide selection of brands, which include DKNY, Clinique, Estée Lauder, Tommy Hilfiger and Tom Ford, among other well-known global prestige ranges.

2020 AND BEYOND

COVID-19 impact

Sales of fragrances are now expected to decline by 3% in 2020 in 2019 constant value terms in light of the impact of COVID-19. This compares to expected 0% growth forecast for 2020 during research conducted at the end of 2019 before the spread of COVID-19.

Affected products within fragrances

All product areas across fragrances are expected to be hit strongly in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The hardest-hit product areas will be unisex fragrances, which were increasingly fashionable towards the end of the review period but have few loyal customers.

Recovery and opportunities

Following the sharp decline seen in retail volume and value at constant 2019 prices in 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown and increased economic uncertainty, there will be a degree of recovery in 2021. However, growth will remain muted for the remaining years of the forecast period and all product areas are expected to see overall value decline at constant 2019 prices.

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