Retail volume sales of fragrances declined for the first time in 12 years during 2020. The economic shock of the pandemic led many local consumers to reduce their discretionary spending.
Smart Collection and Beautimatic International remained the leading players in fragrances in terms of retail current value share during 2020, followed by Jean Paul Rocher, Mirato SpA and Avon Products Inc. Marketing strategies targeted at the mass consumer have been key to the success of these players.
Counterfeit products pose an ongoing threat to the retail current value sales of established fragrances brands. Although the pricing and packaging of counterfeit offerings usually make it obvious that they are not genuine, many local consumers purchase them anyway due to their very low pricing.
Retail volume sales of fragrances will return to growth during 2021, as pandemic-related restrictions are eased – leading to an increase in socialising – and economic activity revives, boosting consumer confidence. The rate of growth in both retail volume and retail current value sales will accelerate over the course of the forecast period, boosted by widening distribution.
In contrast to most of the review period, mass fragrances will outperform their premium counterparts in terms of retail current value sales growth over the course of the forecast period. The post-pandemic economic rebound is likely to encourage a growing number of local consumers to substitute fragrances for deodorants.
Counterfeit offerings will continue to undermine demand for genuine branded products, particularly in premium fragrances, during the forecast period. Government action on counterfeit products tends to be sporadic, and this does not appear likely to change.
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