The on-trade continued its recovery in the Western European alcoholic drinks market in 2022. However, it still has some ground to make up after the losses inflicted by the COVID-19 restrictions in 2020. The off-trade, after seeing a demand spike in 2022, when more consumption moved into the home, has since been in decline, although sales still remain above their pre-pandemic levels. Unit volume growth will mostly come from the on-trade over 2022-2027, with the off-trade generally treading water.
This report comes in PPT.
Sales of alcoholic drinks are likely to have been boosted in Italy in 2021 when the national team won the delayed EURO 2020 men’s soccer tournament. While the rugby union World Cup does not seem to have had a similar effect in host country France in 2023, the 2024 Paris Olympics are expected to help provide this country with its best annual growth of the forecast period.
Although inflation was impacting purchasing power for many consumers at the end of the review period and moving into the forecast period, a premiumisation trend continued to be seen across much of the Western European region. Consumers have continued to demonstrate their interest in more premium products in line with the concept of “drinking less, but better”.
Health and wellness is an ongoing trend in alcoholic drinks in much of Western Europe, with some consumers keen to switch zero-alcohol versions of popular alcoholic drinks and others wanting to cut their alcohol intake, opting for products with lower ABVs. As players look to meet this demand, AB InBev has announced a policy of making 20% of its beer portfolio non-alcoholic by 2025 while Asahi plans for 20% of its portfolio to be alcohol-free by 2030.
The on-trade will drive growth in total unit volume sales over the forecast period. Still recovering from the massive hit it took in 2020, this channel will see positive growth throughout 2022-2027, albeit at a slower rate than in the last two years of the review period. The off-trade, meanwhile, will record a stagnating CAGR, although sales will remain above their pre-pandemic levels thanks to the demand spike this channel enjoyed in 2020.
Alcoholic drinks is the aggregation of beer, wine, spirits, cider/perry and RTDs.
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