Global economic growth has been modest since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and a surge in inflation in 2022. Although the outlook has started to brighten recently, ongoing tightened financial conditions and persisting geopolitical risks put a limit on the global recovery.
First months of 2024 saw a year-on-year easing in many commodity prices, as soft global demand weighed on energy prices and prospects of adequate crop supply capped agrifood price growth. However, geopolitical shocks sparked turbulence in the oil market and drove up gold prices, while rising supply concerns fuelled a rally in copper.
The ongoing cost-of-living crisis is expected to impact consumer demand in 2024. To counter this, companies can focus on B2B sales channels, particularly in the offices and healthcare sectors, which are forecast to maintain steady revenue growth.
The global economic outlook continues to improve, as easing inflation, improved supply conditions and strong labour markets in advanced economies support real income gains, consumer spending and other economic activities in the first quarter of 2024.
Rising geopolitical tensions and economic multipolarity are adding to trade restrictions, shifting the flows of global trade and investment, and hindering economic growth. Against the backdrop of this new global reality, over the long term, companies and countries will continue to follow a globalisation reset strategy, with economic diversification and supply chain security being the key priorities.
Global inflationary pressures are forecast to moderate further in 2024. Under the baseline scenario, global inflation is forecast to stand at 5.4% in 2024 and trend down further to 3.6% in 2025. Lower energy prices, slower consumption growth and normalisation of manufactured goods prices are contributing to lower inflationary pressures.