Global inflationary pressures are forecast to moderate further in 2024. Under the baseline scenario, global inflation is predicted to stand at 4.9% in 2024, down from 6.9% in 2023. Stricter monetary policies, weaker economic growth and a consequent demand slowdown are helping to ease the price pressures.
The global economy has continued to show unexpected resilience in the second half of 2023 despite elevated inflation and restrictive monetary policy in most economies. In large part, this has been the result of surprising strength of the US economy, driven by robust consumer spending, low unemployment and high services sector activity.
Easing of inflationary pressures and looser monetary policy are expected to benefit Brazilian consumers and lift their purchasing power, although slower global economic growth will constrain faster disposable income growth in 2024. For companies, it will be key to provide good value for money for goods and services to gain customer loyalty in Brazil.
As global eyes turn again to China to monitor its current economic situation, understanding what is happening at the micro level can provide insights into how consumers are reacting to the current economic situation and how manufacturers and suppliers can best position their products to compete in this unprecedented environment.
Private label products – retailers’ alternatives to brands – tend to benefit from inflation. However, despite record inflation in France, Germany and the UK, the market share of private label in the three countries remained broadly stable across FMCGs in 2022. This is changing in 2023. This briefing analyses the reasons for the lukewarm performance of private label in 2022, how 2023 is different, and outlines key steps to capitalise on the positive tailwinds to win in private label going forward.
The global economic environment has become more volatile during the last few years, with many risks clouding the outlook. Business leaders now need to focus on building resilience, improve efficiency and enhancing market foresight to prepare themselves for macroeconomic shocks and identify new growth opportunities.
As the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have placed intense stress on global supply chains, purely efficiency-based models have shown their limits in the fashion industry. Since then, luxury and fashion players have pivoted their business models to build their resilience for tomorrow, and beat the impact of inflation, while they also need to anticipate regulatory shifts in terms of sustainability to plan for the future.
Abnormal cost inflation has caused waves of pain for companies since late 2020, but our new Inflation Projection Tool launched in July 2023 strongly indicates that tools and hardware in home and garden stands out as a category where companies were harmed more than most (and brands more than retailers, so far). This sector is badly dislocated around its ability to pass on costs from production to end consumers.
As the world’s energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, countries around the globe are striving to secure reliable and sustainable energy supply. However, not all nations are positioned equally in this quest for energy security. Our Global Energy Vulnerability Index sheds light on the energy vulnerabilities and strengths of different economies, revealing the challenges they face and the opportunities they can seize to enhance energy security.