Although the performance of many economies globally continues to improve in Q3 2021, the momentum for recovery in 2021 is likely to have peaked due to the spread of the highly infectious Delta coronavirus variant, slowdown in vaccination campaigns in advanced economies and low vaccination rates in developing economies. This series of quarterly reports helps businesses track and predict when activity in key markets will recover in order to plan accordingly.
This report comes in PPT.
Even as more countries are expected to have recorded a Recovery Index score of 100 and over in Q3 (indicating a recovery to pre-pandemic levels), the momentum of the recovery in 2021 is likely to have peaked due to the spread of the highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant, slowdown in vaccination campaigns in advanced economies and low vaccination rates in developing economies.
In August, the Chinese government announced a series of strict regulations in key sectors related to national security, technology, finance and monopoly power in a move that could in effect dampen investor confidence and adversely impact the business environment.
Following a strong recovery in the previous quarter, the US is set to have lost recovery momentum in Q3 2021 due to rising concerns over worsening pandemic outlook, dampening consumer confidence and weakening retail sales.
Germany is set to have rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in Q3 2021. Germany’s recovery can be attributed to improving consumer sentiment and increasing private consumption, supported by the reopening of the services sector.
The biggest downside risk to the global recovery is the emergence and spread of more contagious and potentially vaccine-resistant coronavirus variants. Consumer sentiments in Europe and the US are already expected to have dampened ahead of the upcoming cold season that can potentially bring a spike in COVID-19 cases.
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