First months of 2024 saw a year-on-year easing in many commodity prices, as soft global demand weighed on energy prices and prospects of adequate crop supply capped agrifood price growth. However, geopolitical shocks sparked turbulence in the oil market and drove up gold prices, while rising supply concerns fuelled a rally in copper.
The ongoing cost-of-living crisis is expected to impact consumer demand in 2024. To counter this, companies can focus on B2B sales channels, particularly in the offices and healthcare sectors, which are forecast to maintain steady revenue growth.
Rising geopolitical tensions and economic multipolarity are adding to trade restrictions, shifting the flows of global trade and investment, and hindering economic growth. Against the backdrop of this new global reality, over the long term, companies and countries will continue to follow a globalisation reset strategy, with economic diversification and supply chain security being the key priorities.
The consumer packaging industry is typically strong in its ability to withstand crises, given the importance of everyday groceries to global revenues; food and drink accounted for 92% of retail packaging volume sales in 2023. However, inflation, interest rates and geopolitical instability serve to amplify operating costs, for packaging converters/machinery players, brands, and retailers, apparent in the final retail price point, paid by the consumer.
During the current Global Recycling Awareness Week, celebrated on March 18th, it is worth noting that five fmcg industries contributed to four trillion retail packaging units in 2023, a figure expected to rise by 2% by 2026, according to Euromonitor’s packaging data. In this week that aims to generate awareness around the environmental significance of recycling, it is also important to understand that addressing sustainability is not only a moral requirement but also a business opportunity.
This year’s commodity market outlook remains highly uncertain. As consumers and businesses continue to grapple with lingering cost pressures and high interest rates, subdued global economic activity is set to translate into softer commodity demand.