Alcoholic Drinks: Quarterly Statement Q4 2021

November 2021

This briefing looks into Euromonitor International’s Q4 2021 alcoholic drinks forecast, which has been updated in accordance with new macroeconomic data and the latest available information. While there have been no major updates to forecast performance , the reopening and recovery narrative is gaining traction, even as inflationary pressures and supply side bottlenecks become the immediate downside risks .

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Key Findings

Forecast performance only marginally upgraded

Euromonitor International’s updated forecast does not include any big surprises but instead largely reiterates our forecast trajectories. The recovery narrative is gaining momentum – even if regional volatility and downside risks remain in the short to medium term.

Non alcoholic spirits ride the sober curiosity wave

Entering the alcohol industry’s lexicon years before the pandemic and embracing health and wellness as much as lifestyle cues , non alcoholic adult beverages came of age during the darkest days of lockdowns. With a plethora of brands being launched and functionality- led attributes increasingly under the spotlight , the category’s short to medium term performance remains intoxicating.

The spectre of inflation is rising

Production and distribution bottlenecks, materials, ingredients , storage and labour supply issues and an undercurrent of stubbornly high inflationary pressures will replace mobility as the key areas of concern and source of headwinds while key markets continue reopening, Profit margin pressures or rising pricing will be a difficult but necessary choice in the short to medium term.

A polarised new world ?

While the premiumisation narrative proved its resilience over the course of the past couple of apocalyptic years – primarily on the back of generous government support schemes and the comparative affordability of off trade options that were the only available- macroeconomic pressures will intensify as economies reopen and partially overheat. Polarisation – allowing for some consumers to trade down or across while others retain aspirational consumption habits will become increasingly more important as a strategy.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Q4 Alcoholic Drinks Update

Out of the woods ? Solid recovery trajectory upgraded
Upward and downward revisions as the recovery narrative gains steam
Brazil: key battleground for AB InBev and Heineken in beer
Non alcoholic spirits; Intoxicating optimism across scenarios
Culture, lifestyle and drinking rituals determine no/lo focus
Inflationary pressures mount
Alcohol everywhere and not a drop to drink? Supply bottlenecks
Polarisation; The answer to inflationary and supply headwinds?

Q4 2021 Macroeconomic Update

Delta variant and supply constraints tempered economic recovery
Forecast risks remain tilted to the downside

Q4 2021 Macroeconomic Update

Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, EMDE

About our Industry Forecast Model

Euromonitor International and COVID-19: forecasts and analysis
Alcoholic drinks COVID-19 data and reporting timeline
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