This briefing provides updates on Euromonitor’s March 2021 forecast restatement for the Fresh Food industry, deciphering how it is navigating the impact of the pandemic, changes from baseline projections and highlighting future risks and opportunities.
This report comes in PPT.
The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced consumer desire for healthy living and boosting health “from the inside out”, as the realisation spread that poor underlying health was a major risk factor for the virus. There is growing consumer awareness that fresh food is a healthier option than processed food, and there have been increases in sales of perceived immunity-boosting products, such as lemons, garlic and ginger.
The shift to online shopping is continuing. Whilst this is more established in developed markets, online shopping is also growing in developing countries. The bigger retailers have more established online platforms, while smaller independent players are focusing on expanding their online distribution. COVID-19 has accelerated the growth of this channel, as consumers socially distance themselves to avoid getting sick and to comply with government regulations.
As countries implemented lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and foodservice outlets were closed, there was a substantial shift to at-home consumption and cooking at home. Consumers who would previously eat out or grab food on-the-go are now eating at home. This positive impact on fresh food sales is likely to continue, even as vaccines allow restrictions to ease, as the economic impact of the pandemic will mean reduced disposable incomes for many, reducing the ability to eat out.
As the origin of the COVID-19 is reported to be wet markets in Asia, many consumers have become more cautious regarding the origins of their food and its safety. Periods of closure of meat processing plants due to COVID-19 infections disrupted the supply of meat (especially in the US) and prices rose. This provided a boost to alternative proteins in fresh food such as lentils. These benefit from a better health and sustainability profile than meat.
Fresh Food refers only to fresh uncooked and unprocessed foods (packaged and unpackaged). Packaged sugar products and natural sweeteners (e.g. brown sugar, table sugar, molasses) are also included. For Fresh Food, we research total sales across distribution channels including retail, foodservice and institutions. For a selected 18 markets, we have a breakdown of total fresh food sales according to the following formats: • Retail • Foodservice sales • Institutional sales Retail Retail sales is defined as sales through all legal establishments primarily engaged in the sale of fresh, packaged and prepared foods for home preparation and consumption. Retail sales excludes sales to hotels, restaurants, cafés, duty free sales and institutional sales (canteens, prisons/jails, hospitals, army, etc). Our retail definition excludes the purchase of food products from foodservice outlets for consumption off-premises, eg grilled chicken/meat/fish bought from counters of cafés/bars. This falls under foodservice sales. For foodservice, we capture all sales to foodservice outlets, regardless of whether the products are eventually consumed on-premise or off-premise. We estimate sales through the following channels: Modern Grocery Retailers • Supermarkets • Hypermarkets • Discounters • Convenience stores • Forecourt retailers Traditional Grocery Retailers • Independent small grocers • Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists • Other grocery retailers (morning/speciality/open/wet/farmers’ markets, stalls and kiosks, etc) Non-grocery retailers • Health and beauty specialist retailers • Other non-grocery retailers Non-store retailers • Homeshopping • Internet retailing • Vending • Direct selling Foodservice Foodservice sales are defined as sales TO consumer foodservice outlets that serve the general public in a non-captive environment. In other words, this means that the foodservice volumes track sales of all fresh food going into restaurant kitchens, regardless of what the restaurant actually does with that food. Foodservice outlets include cafés/bars, FSR (full-service restaurants), fast food, 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks. Sales to semi-captive foodservice outlets are also included. This describes outlets located in leisure, travel and retail environments. • Retail refers to foodservice units located in retail outlets such as department stores, shopping malls, shopping centres, super/hypermarkets etc. • Leisure refers to foodservice units located in leisure establishments such as museums, health clubs, cinemas, theatres, theme parks and sports stadiums. • Travel refers to foodservice units based in airports, rail stations, coach stations, motorway service stations offering gas facilities etc. Institutional sales Institutional sales is defined as sales to captive foodservice units that serve captive populations such as in hospitals, schools, prisons, military camps, hotels, hostels, nursing homes, homes for elderly people, religious houses, etc.
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