Future of the EV: Assessing Battery and Metals Supply

November 2023

The transportation industry is undergoing a paradigm shift away from fossil fuels amid growing global pressures to reduce carbon emissions. The report assesses the market for EV batteries and essential metals such as lithium and cobalt and points out some of the opportunities and challenges facing the industry. It also illustrates how certain innovations on the backdrop of key challenges facing EVs, are needed to ensure EV adoption continues growing in the future.

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Key Findings

EV shift will propel the demand for EV minerals and metals

The global EV industry is growing as sustainability pressures have earmarked a transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles. By 2040, 71 million new passenger cars are expected to be registered, equivalent to 70% of all new registrations. This will boost demand for metals and minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel critical for EV batteries.

Geopolitics are influencing EV battery production

Geopolitical tensions between the US and China are pushing countries to restructure the EV battery supply chain. This is being manifested through targeted government incentive programmes to ensure the raw materials used in the production of the battery are sourced nationally or from partner countries.

Production fails to meet the projected demand for some EV battery metals

Despite the anticipated rise in demand for metals, shortages of materials are unlikely as global reserves of metals far exceed the projected demand. However, on the production side, many challenges remain as current metal extraction levels are not sufficient to meet the anticipated demand growth.

Lithium and nickel supply needs to increase

Production and supply or lithium and nickel need to be improved by 2030 to avoid price shocks of metals. Even though current supply levels of lithium and nickel would meet the projected demand from the EV sector, increased consumption would leave fewer resources for other sectors and lead to higher prices.

Four areas need to be prioritised to build success in EV battery production

With EV battery production expected to mount, battery manufacturers and automotive OEMs will need to focus on four aspects to build future success - deepen focus on the upstream supply chain, reduce EV battery costs, improve battery energy density and expand EV battery recycling intensities.

Scope
Key findings
Electrification is one of the major megatrends shaping the mobility and automotive industries
The EV industry today
EV transition is driving demand for critical metals and minerals
Shift to pure EVs will require larger battery packs and greater supply of minerals and metals
Electrification of heavy-duty vehicles will further raise demand for minerals and metals
Major governments are actively stepping in to reinforce domestic EV battery production
Incentives have buoyed automakers to expand battery manufacturing
China continues to dominate battery production yet other countries aim to catch up
NMC batteries dominate yet cheaper alternatives are gaining ground
Expanding global production of batteries will create strong demand for metals
Reserves of metals are sufficient, but production fails to meet the projected demand
Cobalt shortages forecast to continue due to difficulties expanding mining capacity
Rising demand and geopolitical tensions threaten graphite supply
Lithium and nickel supply needs to increase to avoid price hikes and production disruptions
Supply of metals will be underpinned by geopolitics
Exploration of new metal deposits will accelerate, but extraction can be difficult
Four ways to achieve success in the EV battery and metals supply industry
Upstream supply: OEMs will need to focus on the upstream supply process to build success
Case study: Tesla opening a lithium refinery capable of supplying one million EVs annually
Case study: Volkswagen establishes joint ventures to build battery supply chain in Indonesia
Lower cost: Cheaper battery chemistries including LFPs are emerging to reduce EV cost
Case study: BYD moving forward with the production of cheaper sodium-ion batteries
Longer range: Solid-state batteries are seen as the new gold-standard for future EVs
Case study: Toyota developing a solid-state battery with a range of over 1,000km
Recycling: Metals supply can be improved by boosting recycling intensities
Case study: EMR and Northvolt launch battery recycling plant in Hamburg
Other key innovations in the EV battery industry
Key commercial takeaways for the EV battery industry
Summary 1 key points
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