Guide to the Tissue and Hygiene Industry Forecast Model with Coronavirus Scenarios

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Key Findings

Euromonitor International’s Macro Model allows us to regularly update key macro indicators such as real GDP growth, as well as create hypothetical scenarios that simulate potential macro shocks. In turn, this ability to change macro forecasts such as GDP growth allows us to create multiple retail category or income/wealth band forecasts.

Our macro forecasts are produced as a combination of:

A global macroeconomic model (Euromonitor International’s Macro Model) that uses data from multiple sources on GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and unemployment rates to forecast those variables.

Further adjustments via model shocks/scenarios to reflect other variables and information that are not taken into account directly by the pure model forecast. For example, other credit market or confidence measures, as well as the macro views of policy institutions and other private sector forecasters.

Euromonitor International’s Macro Model itself is an extended version of one of the main forecasting and scenario analysis models of the IMF (International Monetary Fund). The benchmark model has five observable variables for each economy. These are real GDP, the consumer price index, a short-term interest rate, the unemployment rate and the exchange rate against the US dollar.