Hot Drinks in Western Europe

March 2024

After a demand spike in 2020, when COVID-19 hit Western Europe, followed by further growth in 2021, with some restrictions still in place, the return to near normality in 2022 saw sales decline. However, sales returned to positive growth in 2023 and also remained well above pre-pandemic levels. Positive, if modest, growth is expected over the forecast period, when fresh coffee beans will continue to be one of the best performers.

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Key findings

Inflationary environment resulting in increasing polarisation

There was increasing polarisation in a number of the bigger markets in recent years as the cost-of-living crisis forced many price-sensitive consumers to trade down or reduce their consumption of hot drinks, while, at the same time, premiumisation continued to be seen as other consumer segments looked for more interesting or exotic flavours as well as healthier or more sustainable options.

Private label share tops 26% in Spain in 2023

The inflationary environment in Spain has helped increase the retail value share of private label from less than 24% in 2021 to more than 26% in 2023, thanks to the popular lines from retailers like Mercadona and Carrefour. These products generally have lower unit prices than their branded counterparts, which attracts consumers looking to save money.

E-commerce here to stay

E-commerce was accounting for 8% of retail value sales in Western European hot drinks in 2023, with a regional high of almost 23% in the UK. Although shoppers have been enjoying a return to visiting physical stores post-pandemic, internet retailing has become an engrained habit with many, with increasing numbers of consumers doing the weekly shop from the comfort of their homes, taking advantage of the doorstep delivery service.

Fresh coffee beans expected to continue outperforming the market

Coupled with the success of grinding machines with accessible prices, fresh coffee beans are expected to continue being one of the better performers over the forecast period, as they are seen as offering more taste, and more authentic and less expensive coffee: once the initial investment of the machine is absorbed, it is the cheapest coffee (other than instant coffee).

Scope
Key findings
Western Europe has the second highest regional sales and per capita consumption
Modest year-on-year growth expected in the coming years
Western Europe has the biggest regional coffee market
Demand in the retail channel remains well above pre-pandemic levels in Germany
Fresh coffee beans recording strong growth in France over 2018-2023
Coffee adds the bulk of the new value generated over 2018-2023
Inflation hitting consumers’ purchasing power but failing to halt the premiumisation trend
Modern grocery retailers dominate hot drinks distribution in Western Europe
Discounters gaining share as rising prices impact consumer spending
Hot drinks has relatively concentrated competitive landscapes in most countries
JDE Peet’s acquires Les 2 Marmottes in France
Private label has USD1 billion more sales in Germany than in the next biggest market
German tea brand Teekanne moving up the Western European rankings
Modest year-on-year growth expected in real value terms over 2023-2028
Continued polarisation likely, particularly in the short term
Austria: Market Context
Austria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Belgium: Market Context
Belgium: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Denmark: Market Context
Denmark: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Finland: Market Context
Finland: Competitive and Retail Landscape
France: Market Context
France: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Germany: Market Context
Germany: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Greece: Market Context
Greece: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Ireland: Market Context
Ireland: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Italy: Market Context
Italy: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Netherlands: Market Context
Netherlands: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Norway: Market Context
Norway: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Portugal: Market Context
Portugal: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Spain: Market Context
Spain: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Sweden: Market Context
Sweden: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Switzerland: Market Context
Switzerland: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Turkey: Market Context
Turkey: Competitive and Retail Landscape
UK: Market Context
UK: Competitive and Retail Landscape

Hot Drinks

This is the aggregation of Coffee, Tea, and Other Hot Drinks.

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