Population growth between 2021-2040 will be driven by positive natural change, as the region remains the second most populous in the world. Ongoing urbanisation will lead to growth in major cities while placing pressure on infrastructure, creating housing shortages. Living standards and healthcare improvements will increase life expectancy while the population above 65+ grows. However, the region will continue to have a low median age of 24.1 years, shaping consumer trends and markets in 2040.
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This report comes in PPT.
Through to 2040, Middle East and Africa (MEA) is set to remain the fastest growing global region. Rising by almost a half, MEA’s population is set to reach 2.4 billion by the end of the forecast period, maintaining its ranking as the second most populous world region.
Due to fast economic expansion, the region is set to witness the second-largest consumer income growth globally, which coupled with rapid population expansion is set to spur consumer expenditure. Nevertheless, incomes in Middle East and Africa are expected to remain relatively low by global standards due to low productivity and widespread unemployment, as labour market expansion is unable to keep pace with population growth.
As life expectancy continues to increase on the back of rising standards of living and improving healthcare systems, the population aged 65+ is expected to more than double over 2021-2040, exceeding 130 million by the end of the period. Nevertheless, Middle East and Africa will still be the youngest world region, with its median age remaining more than 10 years below the world average up to 2040.
While the old-age dependency ratio will remain the lowest out of all regions through to 2040, it is not expected to translate in significantly higher standard of living or higher pensions, as social protection systems remain underdeveloped, with large share of the population being deprived from social support due to widespread informal working.
Rapid urbanisation, improving contraceptive access, as well as rising education attainment and employment among females is set to drive falling fertility rates within the region. Yet birth rates will still remain high by global standards, inducing positive natural change.
As a result, couples with children is expected to remain the most prevalent household type through to 2040, supporting demand for family-related goods and services within the region.
Life expectancy in Middle East and Africa is set to increase by 4.5 years over 2021-2040, in part due to advancing healthcare, leading to lower infant death rates. as well as improving living standards, such as rising household penetration of basic drinking water.
Middle East and Africa is set to continue showcasing vast disparities in terms of health over 2021-2040. Due to wider access to healthcare and better living conditions, countries in the Middle East will have higher rates of life expectancy, reaching as high as 85.9 years in Israel in 2040, while prevalence of malnutrition and violent conflicts, as well as lower access to medical care, will drag African life expectancy below 60 in Lesotho, Nigeria and Chad.
Due to negative climate change impacts, political instability and poor living standards, net migration rates will continue to be negative in most regional countries through to 2040, with Lebanon and Nigeria experiencing the greatest outflows.
However, certain regional countries, particularly those that are seeing either return of refugees or higher level of economic development, are expected to record positive net migration. Syria, for example, is set to witness the highest net migration rate over 2021-2040, followed by South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
Urban population is set to overcome rural population for the fist time in 2024 in Middle East and Africa. As many are leaving rural areas for better economic opportunities, fast-paced urbanisation is set to prevail through to 2040, with the urbanisation rate standing at 57.2% by the end of the forecast period.
Nevertheless, uncontrolled urbanisation is putting pressure on urban infrastructure throughout the region, leading to high levels of congestion and shortage of adequate housing. While Luanda in Angola should expand at the fastest pace among major MEA cities, Cairo and Lagos will be the largest ones, accounting for 2.4% and 1.3% of the region’s urban population, respectively, in 2040.
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