Soft Drinks: Half-Year Update H1 2023

July 2023

Euromonitor International’s Soft Drinks Forecast Model expects low single-digit volume growth over the 5-year forecast period. Pricing across soft drinks categories remains high, but is expected to moderate or plateau in the second half of 2023. Improvement relative to Q1 is driven by brighter GDP forecasts in the US and increasing consumer mobility in China, while retailer pressure and consumer fatigue are likely to limit pricing action in the second half of the year.

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Key findings

Consistent outlook for the first quarter of 2023, with modest downgrades relative to initial baseline

Euromonitor International’s Forecast Model expects low single-digit volume growth for soft drinks across 54 markets over 2022-2027, aligning closely with the November publication baseline. The outlook in Western Europe and Asia Pacific has been revised downwards slightly, due to slower household income growth and higher category pricing in soft drinks.

Value outpaces volume across global soft drinks, as consumers absorb price rises (for now)

In North America and Western Europe, the industry is seeing substantial increases in value sales in current terms, while volume sales growth is well below historical averages. The disparity between value and volume performance will not be sustainable over the mid-term, with both retailers and consumers likely to take action against further increases, driving higher private label share and growth of hard discounter and other value-based channels.

Commodity price pressures ease in some areas, fuelling a possible upside scenario in the second half of the year

Commodity price pressures have eased somewhat, particularly in the area of energy and packaging inputs. Sugar prices, meanwhile, remain extremely high, owing to poor weather and climate events in producer nations. Brighter GDP forecasts in the US, and improving consumer mobility in China provide cause for optimism, with inflation expected to moderate over the second half of the year.

Smaller, focused innovations targeted around functional demand and affordability

The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo and other major suppliers in the soft drinks industry reported record revenue and stable volume performance in the first quarter of the year. Smaller, targeted marketing campaigns and high-value functional innovations will be a focus in the second half of the year, with an emphasis on affordability and revenue growth management through packaging and mix.

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Scope
Key findings
Rising prices sustain strong soft drinks growth in nominal terms, despite softer volume
Improvement relative to Q1 expectations, driven by brighter US and China indicators
Resilient GDP growth in US and moderating inflation introduce the possibility of Bounce Back
With exceptions (particularly sugar) commodity cost pressures ease in the first half of 2023
Consumers and retailers may have reached their breaking point in terms of price rises
The Coca-Cola Company: Smaller innovations and marketing campaigns from Creations
PepsiCo: Innovation centred around hydration from Gatorade and Propel
Success of value-focused Campa Cola in India forces price cuts from multinational brands
Prices across key categories plateau in larger carbonates markets in early 2023
Slowing e-commerce growth for soft drinks categories as cost of living increases
Global baseline outlook: Improved growth in an increasingly multi-speed global economy
Global inflation moderates only gradually as price pressures show signs of persistence
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter
Soft drinks system update schedule

Soft Drinks

This is the aggregation of the following categories; Carbonates, Fruit/vegetable juice, Bottled water, Functional drinks, Concentrates, RTD tea, RTD coffee and Asian speciality drinks.

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