Retail sales recorded a clear demand spike in 2020 due to COVID-19 and its restrictions, which decimated the foodservice performance. Recovery in the latter channel and a gradual return to greater normality negatively affected retail sales in 2021. Since then, in 2022 and 2023, retail sales have been declining in volume terms, with the inflationary environment making it a difficult time for industry players and consumers. Modest volume and value CAGRs are expected over the forecast period.
This report comes in PPT.
Even if inflation rates were beginning to drop in 2023 in Western Europe, many households were still experiencing pressure on their spending power in this year. Industry players have been reacting with tactics such as “shrinkflation”, added-value features to justify prices rises, improving operational efficiency or exploring alternative sourcing options.
Brand manufacturers are operating in a tough environment in Western European staple foods. Not only have they been grappling with rising costs in the past couple of years, but artisanal products and private label were each accounting for 30% of regional sales in retail value terms in 2023, with the artisanal share reaching almost three quarters of sales in bread.
While modern grocery retailers dominate sales in Western Europe, the many local bakeries selling artisanal products mean that food/drink/tobacco specialists is also an important distribution channel in staple foods, especially in baked goods. Discounters – particularly attractive to cash-strapped shoppers – have been making gains, particularly in Turkey, where their share more than doubled to 25% over 2018-2023.
The second set of HFSS regulations are set to be introduced in the UK in October 2025. These will include limitations on multibuy offers and a ban on advertising both online and on television. This will likely continue to push brand owners to reformulate any products high in fat, salt or sugar ahead of the upcoming legislation.
NOTE: Couscous, polenta and quinoa are excluded from staple foods.
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