Staple Foods in Western Europe

January 2024

Retail sales recorded a clear demand spike in 2020 due to COVID-19 and its restrictions, which decimated the foodservice performance. Recovery in the latter channel and a gradual return to greater normality negatively affected retail sales in 2021. Since then, in 2022 and 2023, retail sales have been declining in volume terms, with the inflationary environment making it a difficult time for industry players and consumers. Modest volume and value CAGRs are expected over the forecast period.

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Key findings

Inflation still exerting pressure on household purchasing power

Even if inflation rates were beginning to drop in 2023 in Western Europe, many households were still experiencing pressure on their spending power in this year. Industry players have been reacting with tactics such as “shrinkflation”, added-value features to justify prices rises, improving operational efficiency or exploring alternative sourcing options.

Private label and artisanal products account for almost two thirds of staple foods

Brand manufacturers are operating in a tough environment in Western European staple foods. Not only have they been grappling with rising costs in the past couple of years, but artisanal products and private label were each accounting for 30% of regional sales in retail value terms in 2023, with the artisanal share reaching almost three quarters of sales in bread.

Discounters make major gains in Turkey in 2018-2023

While modern grocery retailers dominate sales in Western Europe, the many local bakeries selling artisanal products mean that food/drink/tobacco specialists is also an important distribution channel in staple foods, especially in baked goods. Discounters – particularly attractive to cash-strapped shoppers – have been making gains, particularly in Turkey, where their share more than doubled to 25% over 2018-2023.

Second tranche of HFSS regulations due in the UK in October 2025

The second set of HFSS regulations are set to be introduced in the UK in October 2025. These will include limitations on multibuy offers and a ban on advertising both online and on television. This will likely continue to push brand owners to reformulate any products high in fat, salt or sugar ahead of the upcoming legislation.

Scope
Key findings
Western Europe has the second biggest regional market for staple foods
Modest annual growth rates expected over the forecast period
Western Europe has the biggest baked goods market among the global regions
New products helping drive growth in meat and seafood substitutes in Spain
Processed meat in volume decline in France
Baked goods dominate new sales over 2018-2023
Mutti a value-added success story in the UK as it hits second spot in shelf stable tomatoes
Modern grocery retailers dominate sales of staple foods in Western Europe
Food/drink/tobacco specialists remain a key channel in baked goods sales
Artisanal products contribute to fragmented competitive landscapes
Players look to offer added value against the backdrop of rising costs and prices
Regional leader Barilla generates almost half of its sales in the Italian market
Brands fight for the 40% of sales not accounted for by private label and artisanal products
Modest annual growth rates expected over the forecast period in Western Europe
Health and convenience will remain important trends in the coming years
Austria: Market Context
Austria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Belgium: Market Context
Belgium: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Denmark: Market Context
Denmark: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Finland: Market Context
Finland: Competitive and Retail Landscape
France: Market Context
France: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Germany: Market Context
Germany: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Greece: Market Context
Greece: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Ireland: Market Context
Ireland: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Italy: Market Context
Italy: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Netherlands: Market Context
Netherlands: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Norway: Market Context
Norway: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Portugal: Market Context
Portugal: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Spain: Market Context
Spain: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Sweden: Market Context
Sweden: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Switzerland: Market Context
Switzerland: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Turkey: Market Context
Turkey: Competitive and Retail Landscape
UK: Market Context
UK: Competitive and Retail Landscape

Staple Foods

NOTE: Couscous, polenta and quinoa are excluded from staple foods.

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