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Tissue and Hygiene: Quarterly Statement Q4 2020

January 2021

Overall, the global Q4 forecast update does not indicate dramatic changes, compared to the previous quarter. Standing out somewhat are the US and China, with a slight upgrade to growth in 2020 following the upgrade to the countries’ macroeconomic parameters. India sees a downgrade in 2020 expected growth, but stronger uptake in 2021. Long-term innovation needs to focus on underlining consumer market shifts that go beyond Coronavirus-driven demand, including broader concepts of wellness and self

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Key findings

No significant global shifts in Q4 forecast update compared to Q3, with some exceptions driven by significant changes to macroeconomic outlook

Overall, Euromonitor International’s industry forecast update for Q4 demonstrates no dramatic shifts to global consumer tissue and disposable hygiene 2020 growth trajectory. Developed markets continue to display higher demand for a number of product categories, mainly in tissue and wipes with disinfecting and antibacterial, properties. At the same time, emerging and developing markets see overall weaker performance in 2020 due to COVID-19’s heavy economic toll on household incomes.

US and China see slight upgrade to 2020 expectations, while India sees a significant drop in 2020 but steady uptake in 2021 onward

Standing out somewhat are the US and China - the two key markets for consumer tissue and disposable hygiene, both recording a slight upgrade to 2020 growth due to macroeconomic upgrades. On the other hand, India - one of the key markets with significant unmet potential - is seeing a downgrade to 2020 growth due to weak economic fundamentals. The country, however, is expected to see a somewhat stronger recovery in 2021 than previously anticipated.

2020 innovation continues to tap into opportunities created by COVID-19

The second half of 2020 continues to see innovation that responds to opportunities created by COVID-19, especially in products with disinfecting properties. Additionally, combining pre-COVID-19 trends towards broader wellness and COVID-19 demand across multiple categories, a number of key brands have taken to creating product ranges that include a variety of personal care products rather than just focusing on product upgrades in one specific area.

Long-term focus on brand innovation and communication to tap into broader concepts of wellness and self care

As the effects of COVID-19 wear off mid to long term, product innovation needs to consider key underlining consumer and societal trends that go beyond COVID-19-specific demand. As the consumer shift towards brand engagement beyond just specific product/category continues, successful innovation will encompass broader understanding of health and wellness - personal, household, societal and environmental.

Introduction

Scope
Euromonitor International and Coronavirus (COVID-19): Forecasts and analysis
Tissue and hygiene COVID-19 data and research timeline
Key findings

Q4 Macroeconomic Update

Summer was more optimistic, but second wave of pandemic hits
In our baseline view, economies start rebounding in 2021
Three scenarios examining the impact of a more severe outbreak
Our view in short
Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios

Q4 Tissue and Hygiene Update

Updated quarterly forecast for tissue: At-home demand remains high
Updated quarterly forecast for hygiene: disinfecting at-home still strong
2021 and beyond: “Tale of two worlds”
US and China: Slight upgrade in disposable hygiene sales trajectory…
… demand for consumer tissue expected to slow in 2021 onward
Downgrading India: Affordability and value for money in focus
Soft drivers: How we quantify these COVID-19-specific effects in the IFM
Impact of COVID-19 drivers diminishes in 2021 and beyond
Innovation reflects broad wellness and addresses long-term shifts
Feminine care focuses on comprehensive self care

q3 tissue and hygiene Update

Looking into 2021 and beyond

About Our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for the Industry Forecast Model
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