Travel: Quarterly Statement Q4 2023

February 2024

The outlook for global travel and tourism in Q4 2023 was upbeat, as the speed of recovery to peak levels accelerated, pointing to a full return for international tourism spending in 2024. Nevertheless, despite this reversal of fortune for many destinations, the conflict in Gaza and rising tensions in the wider Middle East may slow the sector’s pace of recovery, as attention turns to peace and stability, as well as safety and security.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key findings

Travel is (almost) back on top

International tourism spending is almost back to its peak levels, and 2024 is gearing up to be a record year, with USD2 trillion forecast to be spent worldwide on travel and tourism services and products. New and old challenges mean, however, that the path ahead will be tough, requiring an agile approach to diversifying demand, digitalisation and sustainable transformation.

Spill-over effects from Israel-Hamas war set to slow tourism demand

The Middle East was the star performer of 2023, seeing a faster recovery in inbound tourism spending than its regional peers. However, the conflict in Gaza is forecast to slow tourism demand in the region, as travellers cancel and reschedule their travel plans for when safety and security are restored. The soon to be launched GCC Common Visa scheduled for 2024/2025 will be an important tool for facilitating travel within the region.

North America and Europe upgrades

European and North American destinations enjoyed upgrades to their inbound tourism spending performance over the previous forecast, boosted by stronger than anticipated intra-regional demand during the peak summer season, whilst the return of Chinese outbound travel demand remained slow and sluggish in volume terms, but accelerated in terms of spending.

Germany gears up for football fever

Germany is preparing to host the UEFA Euro Football Championships in 2024, across 10 cities – an opportunity to showcase its unique experiences to the rest of world, andput it in the global spotlight. With popular Southern European destinations suffering from the direct impact of climate change, such as wildfires, Germany has a significant opportunity to reach potential new target markets at home and abroad.

Scope
Key findings
Updated forecast for travel: Even faster spending recovery as appetite for travel is robust
Global view: Stronger volume recovery than anticipated in 2023, revised upwards by 4%
Middle East and Africa trailblazes ahead in international tourism spending
Resounding majority of countries enjoy improved forecast outlook despite dark clouds
Minority of countries witness downgrades as recovery exceeds expectations
Middle East forecast to see slowdown due to spill-over effects of geopolitical tensions
Saudi Arabia: potential risk that ambitious visitor targets will erode quality of tourism
Iceland experiences volcanic eruption but unlikely to cause as much disruption as before
Germany embraces diversity and inclusion as gears up to host UEFA 2024
China slow progress on return to international trips yet accelerated spending power
Duty-free poised to benefit from revived Chinese tourism spending
Boeing faces tough questions on mid-air blowout leads to fleet grounding
Travel and tourism accelerate towards a new era of record highs but challenges ahead
Global baseline outlook: Global growth expected to see post-pandemic low point in 2024
Global inflation expected to moderate significantly amid ongoing global economic slowdown
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter (1)
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter (2)
Euromonitor International and COVID-19: Forecasts and analysis
Travel model data and reporting timeline
About Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model
Travel Forecast Model applications
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Travel Forecast Model

Travel

Travel encompasses several categories including tourism flows, lodging, travel modes, in-destination spending and booking.

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