The cannabis industry is rapidly seeing new developments across the spaces of regulation, mergers & acquisitions and product launches. This report covers these changes which have occurred during the first three months of 2021. In addition, the concluding portion of this briefing covers the latest updates to Euromonitor’s macroeconomic model as well as a preview of upcoming developments in the second quarter of 2021.
The global recession of 2020 was milder than expected in the Q4 2020 forecasts report, with global real GDP in 2020 contracting by 3.6%. This mainly reflects a faster than expected recovery in advanced economies in Q3 from the initial COVID-19 wave lockdowns, followed by a more moderate than expected economic impact of pandemic restrictions in Q4 2020. Many economies, especially in Europe, were still subject to significant social distancing and economic activity restrictions in Q1 2021; however, the global economic outlook has substantially improved since the end of 2020.
Global real GDP growth in 2021 is predicted to be 5.3% (with a plausible baseline forecast range of 4.3-6.3%). The global recovery is expected to continue in 2022, with real GDP growth of around 4%. Under the baseline forecast, the global economic recovery in 2021-2022 will still leave global real GDP around 3.7% below the pre-pandemic forecast level.
The overall outlook is more optimistic in Q1 2021, with significantly lower downside risks. The baseline forecast and a more optimistic scenario, with 2021 real GDP growth of 6.3-7.8%, are now assigned around a 60% probability, compared to around 51% probability in the Q4 scenarios outlook, with a corresponding decline in pessimistic scenario probabilities. The baseline forecast is assigned a 45-55% probability.
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