World Market for Consumer Finance

November 2021

The world market for consumer finance is rebounding following the drop in consumer spending caused by COVID-19. Nearly all the established payment companies saw a drop in processed value, but more consumers adopted financial cards to replace cash, which will fuel additional volume over the forecast period. The shift of retail online and financial product and service innovation, particularly in Asia Pacific, are expected to drive greater volume going forward.

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Key Findings

Debit card payment value expected to surge over 2021-2026

An additional USD22.6 trillion is expected to be processed on financial cards by 2026 with the largest share expected to be on debit cards. Concerns regarding the transmission of COVID-19 from paper money, combined with the shift of retail online, is driving card adoption.

M-commerce increased by USD683 billion in 2020

M-commerce increased by more than USD683 billion in 2021, as consumers moved online rapidly during COVID-19. An additional USD4 trillion is predicted over 2021-2026 in the 47 markets directly researched. Proximity m-commerce accounted for 41% of value in 2021.

COVID-19’s impact on consumer payments persists

The immediate impact of the pandemic was a decline in overall consumer spending and a reduction in outstanding consumer credit, accelerating the shift of retail online and reducing friction at the POS. Many of these trends persist and are predicted to become more pronounced over the forecast period.

Non-performing loans increase globally

Consumer credit non-performing loans increased at the start of the pandemic and have stayed at high levels in 2021. The losses may, however, have been kept low due to deferment and postponement offered by lenders, and did not reach previous recession levels. Levels are expected to fall over the forecast period to pre-pandemic levels.

Fintech in Asia Pacific continues to drive payment innovation

From QR codes to wearable payment technology, Asia Pacific continues to drive payment innovation. Many fintech companies are increasing the value of payment transactions through increased security or providing additional services to merchants and customers.

Introduction

Scope

Top Five Trends Shaping the Industry

Examining five trends shaping consumer finance

The Industry Pre-Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Card payment value to maintain strong growth
Transition away from cash well underway pre-COVID-19
Card payment value by type and market
Largest regions by value
Developing regions
Cash continues to decline
Cash declining across regions

Leading Companies and Brands

Network landscape
Leading global card networks (1)

Leading companies and brands

Leading global card networks (2)
Issuing landscape (1)
Issuing landscape (2)
Issuing landscape (3)
COVID-19 trends continue to impact payments
Examining five trends shaping consumer finance
Rebound expected for credit cards
Fintech increasing m-commerce and access to financial services
Pandemic accelerates cash alternatives globally
More consumers adopt financial services
Pandemic increases non-performing loans globally
Asia Pacific expanding its card payment value significance

Global Outlook

Areas of opportunity
Personal credit and debit generate most payment value
Commercial card opportunity
The next payments frontier
China and US lead payment value
Beyond the US and China

Market snapshots

Total cards growth

Market Snapshots

Credit
Debit
Open loop pre-paid
Charge
Asia Pacific consumer payment growth
Asia Pacific card growth by function
Australasia consumer payment growth
Australasia card growth by function
Eastern Europe consumer payment growth
Eastern Europe card payment growth
Latin America consumer payment growth
Latin America card payment growth
Middle East and Africa consumer payment growth
Middle East and Africa card payment growth
North America consumer payment growth
North America card payment growth
Western Europe consumer payment growth
Western Europe card payment growth

Appendix

Definitions

Consumer Finance

This is the aggregation of ATM, charge, credit, debit, e-purse and retail cards. Note that smart cards are not included in financial cards.

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