With strong growth in Brazil and Mexico, the two biggest markets, baked goods will record increasing sales in 2020, in spite of the declines in some markets, eg Chile and Peru. Unpackaged baked goods will perform particularly badly in Peru, as a result of local consumers’ hygiene concerns due to Coronavirus (COVID-19). Latin America will see healthy annual growth rates over the forecast period, with Brazil and Mexico continuing to register positive growth and Chile rebounding immediately.
This report comes in PPT.
Baked goods was recording positive annual growth rates over the historic period, particularly once Brazil had emerged from its deep recession in 2015-2016. Bread is a key staple in many countries in the region, even if the main product might differ from country to country, eg unpackaged leavened bread in Brazil but unpackaged flat bread in Mexico.
In many countries across the region as well as in Latin America as a whole, packaged bread outperformed unpackaged bread because of the pandemic in 2020. Consumers had hygiene concerns about unpackaged bread, given that it is open to the environment and could potentially be handled by a number of store workers and/or other shoppers.
Artisanal products tend to dominate sales in most countries in the region. For example, artisanal producers dominate baked goods in Argentina – seen as more affordable than packaged/industrial alternatives and as being made with higher-quality ingredients. Even branded players, such as leading regional player Grupo Bimbo, have been introducing increasing numbers of artisanal-style products.
Baked goods is expected to record consistently healthy annual growth rates over the forecast period. While unpackaged leavened bread will account for the bulk of the new sales in real value terms, frozen baked goods will perform strongly as consumers value the convenience and easy preparation of these products. The greatest dynamism will be seen in free from gluten products over 2020-2025. Health-conscious consumers are increasingly looking for free from gluten products, capable of not only addressing different levels of gluten intolerance, but also contributing to a more functional and balanced diet.
In packaged food we consider two aspects of food sales: 1) Retail sales. 2) Foodservice. Retail sales is defined as sales through establishments primarily engaged in the sale of fresh, packaged and prepared foods for home preparation and consumption. This excludes hotels, restaurant, cafés, duty free sales and institutional sales (canteens, prisons/jails, hospitals, army, etc). Our retail definition EXCLUDES the purchase of food products from foodservice outlets for consumption off-premises, eg impulse confectionery bought from counters of cafés/bars. This falls under foodservice sales. For foodservice, we capture all sales to foodservice outlets, regardless of whether the products are eventually consumed on-premise or off-premise. Foodservice sales is defined as sales to consumer foodservice outlets that serve the general public in a non-captive environment. Outlets include cafés/bars, FSR (full-service restaurants), fast food, 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks. Sales to semicaptive foodservice outlets are also included. This describes outlets located in leisure, travel and retail environments. 1) Retail refers to units located in retail outlets such as department stores, shopping malls, shopping centres, super/hypermarkets etc. 2) Leisure refers to units located in leisure establishments such as museums, health clubs, cinemas, theatres, theme parks and sports stadiums. 3) Travel refers to units located in based in airports, rail stations, coach stations, motorway service stations offering gas facilities etc. Beyond the scope of the foodservice research are captive foodservice units that serve captive populations around institutions such as hospitals, schools, and prisons. This is also known as institutional sales.
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