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Baked Goods in Latin America

April 2021

With strong growth in Brazil and Mexico, the two biggest markets, baked goods will record increasing sales in 2020, in spite of the declines in some markets, eg Chile and Peru. Unpackaged baked goods will perform particularly badly in Peru, as a result of local consumers’ hygiene concerns due to Coronavirus (COVID-19). Latin America will see healthy annual growth rates over the forecast period, with Brazil and Mexico continuing to register positive growth and Chile rebounding immediately.

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Key findings

Steady growth seen in baked goods

Baked goods was recording positive annual growth rates over the historic period, particularly once Brazil had emerged from its deep recession in 2015-2016. Bread is a key staple in many countries in the region, even if the main product might differ from country to country, eg unpackaged leavened bread in Brazil but unpackaged flat bread in Mexico.

Pandemic provides temporary spike for packaged bread

In many countries across the region as well as in Latin America as a whole, packaged bread outperformed unpackaged bread because of the pandemic in 2020. Consumers had hygiene concerns about unpackaged bread, given that it is open to the environment and could potentially be handled by a number of store workers and/or other shoppers.

Artisanal products and local bakeries still very popular

Artisanal products tend to dominate sales in most countries in the region. For example, artisanal producers dominate baked goods in Argentina – seen as more affordable than packaged/industrial alternatives and as being made with higher-quality ingredients. Even branded players, such as leading regional player Grupo Bimbo, have been introducing increasing numbers of artisanal-style products.

Free from gluten will be the most dynamic products in 2020-2025

Baked goods is expected to record consistently healthy annual growth rates over the forecast period. While unpackaged leavened bread will account for the bulk of the new sales in real value terms, frozen baked goods will perform strongly as consumers value the convenience and easy preparation of these products. The greatest dynamism will be seen in free from gluten products over 2020-2025. Health-conscious consumers are increasingly looking for free from gluten products, capable of not only addressing different levels of gluten intolerance, but also contributing to a more functional and balanced diet.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Regional Overview

Uruguay has one of the highest per capita consumption rates globally
Slight slowdown in 2020 to be followed by stronger growth rates
Brazil and Mexico the main growth drivers in 2015-2020
Growth drivers: Bread in Brazil, pastries in Mexico and cakes in Peru
Bread accounts for the bulk of new sales in the region
COVID-19 likely to encourage further growth for HW products
Specialist retailers continue to lead sales of baked goods
Artisanal bakeries continue to open in large Brazilian cities

Leading Companies and Brands

Fragmented competitive landscape with strong artisanal presence
Molinos Río de la Plata closes in on the top 10
Brazil the main market for the greatest number of top 10 players
Pullman and Panco move up the rankings in 2020

Forecast Projections

Packaged bread sales spike in 2020 due to hygiene concerns…
…but unpackaged bread will continue to dominate sales
Soft drivers will provide the main impetus for baked goods growth

Country Snapshots

Argentina: Market Context
Argentina: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Bolivia: Market Context
Bolivia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Brazil: Market Context
Brazil: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Chile: Market Context
Chile: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Colombia: Market Context
Colombia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Costa Rica: Market Context
Costa Rica: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Dominican Republic: Market Context
Dominican Republic: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Ecuador: Market Context
Ecuador: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Guatemala: Market Context
Guatemala: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Mexico: Market Context
Mexico: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Peru: Market Context
Peru: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Uruguay: Market Context
Uruguay: Competitive and Retail Landscape
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