Consumer Foodservice: Quarterly Statement Q3 2020

September 2020

The Coronavirus pandemic has devastated restaurant sales in nearly every market. This report explores Euromonitor’s just-updated 5-year forecasts on the industry, offering insights and analysis on potential strategies and Coronavirus (COVID-19) impacts in the near to mid term.

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Key findings

Global consumer foodservice demand collapses in 2020

While the impact of COVID-19 has differed dramatically across markets, the damage done to restaurant sales has been close to universal - with few exceptions, consumers stayed away from restaurants regardless of local government mandates.

Asian and Australasian markets comparatively less impacted

China and other Asian markets, as well as New Zealand and Australia, were the first to be impacted by COVID-19, and thanks to generally effective policy responses (lockdowns, effective testing, contact tracing, and isolation regimes, and widespread mask use among the population) were among the first to bring the outbreak under control, though flare-ups are ongoing.

Chains surge, non-traditional locations contract sharply

The pandemic has intensified - not created - a shift away from specific locations, as foot traffic and consumer mobility give way to the smartphone as the primary driver of foodservice discovery and (increasingly) usage. At the same time, better-capitalised chains have outperformed, able to adapt their operations more effectively than independents, on average.

More dining at home, more prepared food at home

Restaurant industry becomes more home-centric, even while moving into more occasions, a long-term trend that COVID-19 has only accelerated.

Crisis driving long-term centralisation, modernisation of industry

Beyond driving the expansion of chains in many markets, the pandemic is reinforcing a number of shifts in global foodservice, above all a shift to a more delivery- and smartphone-driven industry, as consumers globally look for cheaper, more convenient options that require less human contact.

 

Scope
Euromonitor International and COVID-19: Forecasts and analysis
Consumer Foodservice COVID-19 data and reporting timeline
Key findings
Global economy will contract sharply in 2020
In our baseline view, the pandemic slows in the second half of 2020
Three scenarios examining the impact of a more severe outbreak
Our view in short
Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios
Global consumer foodservice demand collapses in 2020
Industry to return to 2018 sales by 2023
Asian and Australasian markets comparatively less impacted
Global full-service restaurant forecasts nearly halved
Severe lockdown regimes hit key markets hard
Restated growth shows negative effects for all categories
Increased expectations for permanent shifts in consumer behaviour
Travel and others
Factors to watch for the remainder of 2020
Crisis driving long-term centralisation , modernisation of industry

Consumer Foodservice

Consumer foodservice is composed of cafés/bars, full-service restaurants, limited-service restaurants, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks.

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