As of May 2020, Euromonitor International has further downgraded the baseline global real GDP growth forecast for 2020 to a range of -4.0% to -1.5. Advanced economies are expected to be the hardest hit in this recession, with their economic activity contracting by around 6% in 2020. Emerging and developing economies are also likely to be badly hit with output contracting by around 1% in 2020.
This report comes in PPT.
Advanced economies are expected to be the hardest hit in this recession, with their economic activity contracting by around 6% in 2020. This reflects the strong spread of the pandemic in these economies, and the willingness of these countries to engage in costly social distancing measures to reduce infection and death rates.
Emerging and developing economies are also likely to be badly hit with output contracting by around 1% in 2020, due to both social distancing measures and stronger financial and trade spillover effects.
The baseline forecast reflects the combined adverse effects of COVID-19 social distancing restrictions, supply disruptions, significant tightening of financial conditions, a spike in private sector uncertainty, falling household disposable incomes and sharp drops in global trade and commodity prices.
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