Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2020

May 2020

As of May 2020, Euromonitor International has further downgraded the baseline global real GDP growth forecast for 2020 to a range of -4.0% to -1.5. Advanced economies are expected to be the hardest hit in this recession, with their economic activity contracting by around 6% in 2020. Emerging and developing economies are also likely to be badly hit with output contracting by around 1% in 2020.

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Key Findings

As of May 2020, Euromonitor International has further downgraded the baseline global real GDP growth forecast for 2020 to a range of -4.0% to -1.5%, compared to 2.6-3.4% growth forecast in the last pre-COVID-19 pandemic forecast.

Advanced economies are expected to be the hardest hit in this recession, with their economic activity contracting by around 6% in 2020. This reflects the strong spread of the pandemic in these economies, and the willingness of these countries to engage in costly social distancing measures to reduce infection and death rates.

Emerging and developing economies are also likely to be badly hit with output contracting by around 1% in 2020, due to both social distancing measures and stronger financial and trade spillover effects.

The baseline forecast reflects the combined adverse effects of COVID-19 social distancing restrictions, supply disruptions, significant tightening of financial conditions, a spike in private sector uncertainty, falling household disposable incomes and sharp drops in global trade and commodity prices.

Global Outlook

Global Baseline Outlook
Global Baseline Outlook Subject to Unusually High Downside Risks
Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, AE (%, percentage points)
Real GDP Annual Growth Forecasts and Revisions from Last Quarter, EMDE (%, percentage points)
Inflation Quarterly Forecasts, %
Central Bank Interest Rate Quarterly Forecasts
Global Risks
Global Risk Index Scores and Rankings
COVID-19 Scenarios
COVID-19 Pessimistic2 Scenario, the Main Downside Risk Forecast
COVID-19 Pessimistic1 Scenario, A Moderately More Pessimistic Forecast
COVID-19 Pessimistic3 Scenario, A Worst Case Forecast

The US

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Economic Activity and Financial Markets
Economic Impact of COVID-19 Varies Substantially by Industry

China

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
COVID-19 Impact by Industry
COVID-19 and Consumer Spending by Income Segment (1)
COVID-19 and Consumer Spending by Income Segment (2)

India

General Outlook

INDIA

Forecast Risks

Japan

General Outlook
Japanese economy is likely to remain below 2019 level for the coming years

The EUROZONE

General Outlook
Forecast Risks
Economic Activity and Sentiment

The UK

General Outlook

THe uk

The British economy faces significant downside risks

THe UK

Unsuccessful Brexit negotiations would significantly prolong the recession

Russia

General Outlook
Forecast Risks

Brazil

General Outlook
Alternative COVID-19 Brazil Economy Scenarios
Main economic challenges amid COVID pandemic

notes

Scope and Objectives
Definitions
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