The global economic outlook has worsened substantially since February 2022, with lower expected growth and higher uncertainty. The war in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia have caused large reductions in Russian energy and commodity supplies, and major cuts in food exports from Russia and Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has also raised geopolitical risk especially in Europe, due to the risks of escalation of the war to a more general conflict.
This report comes in PPT.
The war in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia have caused large reductions in Russian energy and commodity supplies, and major cuts in food exports from Russia and Ukraine. The new adverse supply shocks have led to significant price increases for energy and food, and declining global consumer purchasing power, especially for lower-income households.
The war in Ukraine has also raised geopolitical risk especially in Europe, due to the risks of escalation of the war to a more general conflict. As a result, private sector uncertainty has increased and financial risk premia are likely to increase over 2022-2023, further reducing consumer spending and business investment.
China’s economy in Q2 2022 faces a significant slowdown in growth, with high uncertainty. Negative effects of COVID-19 restrictions, excess debt and profitability problems in China’s large real estate sector and the worsening global export demand outlook are the key factors underlying the slowdown in China’s economic growth in 2022-2023.
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