The global economic outlook continues to be suppressed by surging inflation and growing uncertainties caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising geopolitical tension in Asia, tightening of global financial conditions, and China’s economic slowdown. Global real GDP growth is expected to slow significantly from a strong recovery of 6.2% in 2021 to 3.0% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. Inflation is forecast to stay elevated, curbing real income growth and squeezing living standards in many countries.
This report comes in PPT.
Gloomy developments since early 2022 continue to set the global economy on a course of slower growth and higher inflation. Global real GDP growth is forecast to decline to 3.0% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023, after a strong recovery of 6.2% recorded in 2021. Downside risks have increased, with uncertainties coming from various sources, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, geopolitical tension between China, Taiwan and the US, skyrocketing inflation, a sharp tightening of global financial conditions, and China’s economic slowdown.
The US economy faces a significant slowdown risk in Q3 2022, as consumer and business confidence weaken further amid fading pent-up demand, multi-decade high inflation and tightening financial conditions. Eurozone economies continue to be hit hard by the impact of the war in Ukraine, given their high exposure through energy imports. Growing uncertainty over energy supply, particularly for the coming winter, coupled with weakening global and regional demand, are dragging down the Eurozone’s growth outlook.
China’s economic slowdown has been more significant than expected, driven by the negative effects of COVID-19 restrictions and increasing infections, a deepening property market crisis, lacklustre domestic consumption, and weakening global demand. China’s slowdown could spillover to other major economies through imports, thus affecting the global growth outlook.
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