Global Recovery Tracker: Q3 2020

November 2020

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered the most severe global recession in nearly a century. Businesses are operating in a world of anxieties and uncertainties, not knowing what will be the new normal or when output and consumer spending will rebound to pre-crisis levels. In this context, Euromonitor has developed the Global Recovery Tracker and Recovery Index to help businesses track and predict when activity in key markets will recover so as to plan their strategy accordingly.

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Key Findings

The spread of COVID-19 accelerates again

As the northern hemisphere approaches the winter, the number of cases has been rising again since mid-September – particularly in Europe and North America, with several European countries now heading into further lockdowns. In our baseline forecast, Euromonitor predicted global growth to be -4.8% in 2020, recovering to 5.2% in 2021. However, in the scenario of a major second global pandemic wave at the end of 2020, followed by a possible third wave in 2021, global real GDP growth will be much weaker at -5.3% in 2020 and 0.7% in 2021.

China is the first major economy to have recovered

Having suffered the pandemic’s blow earlier than other countries and subsequently stemmed the spread of the virus, China is the first major economy to see its real economic output, labour market, and consumer spending rebound fully to pre-pandemic levels.

Long and bumpy road to recovery elsewhere

With a further wave of COVID-19 infections undermining efforts to return to normal, business and consumer confidence shaken and little scope for further fiscal and monetary stimulus, most countries and economies will still have a long way to recovery. 

Job losses set to climb

Unemployment is set to rise in many countries due to continued workplace closures and businesses facing the risks of renewed shutdowns and restrictions. Even in those countries where furloughs were implemented, the labour market is set to deteriorate as government support for workers and businesses fades.

Consumers continue to cut back on spending

In most countries, consumers are less inclined to spend, with many fearing job losses and expecting their personal finances to deteriorate in the coming months. Additionally, lockdown measures – with air travel suspended, restaurants and shops being shut – have restricted what consumers can spend money on.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings
Key events so far
Downward revisions to Euromonitor’s baseline forecasts
Global economic outlook remain tilted towards downside risks

Euromonitor Recovery Index

The Recovery Index
Index ranking based on Q3 2020 scores: 1 to 10
Index ranking based on Q3 2020 scores: 11 to 20
Index ranking based on Q3 2020 scores: 21 to 30
Index ranking based on Q3 2020 scores: 31 to 40
Index ranking based on Q3 2020 scores: remaining countries
Recovery landscape in Q3 2020

Overview of Major Economies

Long and bumpy road to recovery
Economic activity to face risks of further shutdowns
Job losses bound to climb where government support fades
Consumers continue to cut back on spending
But retail sales benefit from the shift to goods from services
The pandemic has led to a collapse in consumer confidence

Country Insights

Brazil: high unemployment puts pressure on consumption
China: the first major economy to recover
Germany: employment expected to fall through to Q1 2021
Italy: already on the brink of a recession before the pandemic
Japan: recovery is met with many challenges
USA: consumer confidence significantly below historic average
UK: eat out didn’t really help out

Conclusion

A slower recovery is now more likely
Key country insights
Outlook

Appendix: Index Methodology

Recovery Index Methodology
Recovery Index Indicators and Weights
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