Personal Accessories: Quarterly Statement Q1 2021

Delivery

This report comes in PPT.

Key findings

Downside risks to economic recovery have declined

Many economies are still subject to significant social distancing and economic activity restrictions in Q1 2021; however, the global economic outlook has nevertheless substantially improved since the end of 2020. Major vaccination campaigns are in progress, and vaccination rates sufficient for herd immunity are likely to be attained in advanced economies in Q3-Q4 2021, leading to a strong global economic rebound during the second half of 2021.

Eurozone markets struggle with succeeding COVID-19 waves and slower than expected vaccination programmes

Several markets in the Eurozone are still implementing tighter COVID-19 rules to curb resurgence of the virus. These, along with a much slower than anticipated EU vaccination rollout programme, are restraining recovery across key Personal Accessories markets. With non-essential travel bans in place across several markets, foreign demand (a key growth driver in markets such as Italy, France or the UK) remains heavily disrupted.

Reshoring demand turbo charges recovery trend in China

On the other hand, China is cashing in on this re-shored demand, with domestic consumption and overall economic recovery strengthening quarter to quarter. Real GDP growth rates in China have been upgraded by 0.5 percentage points as part of the Q1 2021 quarterly update, fuelling faster forecast period growth rates across all Personal Accessories categories in the country.

High-end references downgraded the most over the forecast period

Forecast growth rates to 2025 for high-end references such as fine jewellery, high watches or luxury handbags have been downgraded the most as part of this Q1 2021 quarterly update. Their non-essential nature and higher than average income elasticity rates, are the main drivers behind this macroeconomic-led industry update.