The latest Travel Quarterly Statement for Q1 2021 shows that the outlook for travel and tourism continues to be challenging, as travel bans and restrictions remain, despite progress with vaccines. Most destinations witnessed a downgrade in forecast inbound tourism spending in 2021. The launch of digital health passports will be instrumental in opening up international travel in a safe way and help the transition to a sustainable, value-driven business model.
This report comes in PPT.
The Q1 2021 forecast update for global travel and tourism hasbeen revised slightly upwards for spending over 2021-2022, but adjusteddownwards over the long term with USD4.6 billion less inbound spending by 2025.The pandemic continues to disrupt normal life and the ability to travel. Globalreceipts are expected to reach USD2,092 billion by 2025, with 1,801 millionarrivals.
Technology such as biometrics via smartphone apps is being leveraged to facilitate the safe opening up of international travel. Digital health schemes like IATA Travel Pass are already being trialled by multiple airlines and the EU’s Digital Green Certificate will be up and running by June 2021. Although vaccine passports should be used in tandem with other containment measures.
Vaccines are not a silver bullet, but are an essential tool to control the virus and pave a way forward so that the “new normal” can settle into place. Returning to mass tourism blind to the impacts of volume driven growth on communities and the climate is no longer an option. Embracing sustainable transformation and having a holistic view of the costs and benefits of tourism is critical.
The outlook for 2021 will be hampered by ongoing travel bans and restrictions, with key regions like Europe not expected to open up until mid-June 2021, hoping to capitalise on pent up demand from pandemic-weary consumers looking for rest, relaxation and renewal, and the opportunity to travel abroad.
There are still many downside risks ahead, such as the emergence of new variants that are more resistant to the vaccine and spread faster as seen with the UK/Kent, South Africa and Brazil variants. This dynamically changing health situation will lead to frequently updated travel advice and countries moving from green, amber or red status. Clear messaging will be required to build trust.
Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model helps to show how COVID-19 cases and deaths, geopolitical tensions and changing macro drivers are determining the performance of the global travel and tourism industry. In the short term, the outlook remains highly uncertain, with recovery predicated on the speed of mass vaccination programmes and effective testing.
Travel encompasses several categories including tourism flows, lodging, travel modes, in-destination spending and booking.
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