Global Recovery Tracker: Q1 2021

March 2021

The global outlook has improved as of Q1 2021, thanks to vaccination progress in many developed countries. Nevertheless, the recovery prospects remain distant for most economies in the face of the spread of new, more infectious variants of the virus. Amid the pandemic and economic uncertainties, Euromonitor International’s Global Recovery Tracker helps businesses track and predict when activity in key markets will recover so as to plan their strategies accordingly.

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Key findings

Improved global outlook

The global economic outlook has improved since the end of 2020, owing primarily to a more positive outlook in developed countries, where progress in vaccination is expected to lead to a stronger economic rebound in the second half of 2021. Vaccination campaigns in developing economies are expected to take longer and therefore these economies are likely to face ongoing local COVID-19 waves.

The US can now expect a quicker recovery

Thanks to one of the fastest vaccination campaigns in the world, the US economic activity and consumer demand are estimated to have rebounded almost to 2019 levels in Q1 2021, with a full recovery expected in Q3 2021 – a quarter sooner than in our previous forecast.

The UK is the worst performer on the Recovery Index

Despite the quick vaccine roll-out, the UK is set to remain the worst performer in Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index. Brexit, heightened uncertainty about the future and lockdown restrictions have resulted in a worsening labour market situation and a drop in private consumption and retail sales.

New coronavirus variants pose risks to the recovery

Many countries, especially in Europe, tightened lockdown measures in Q1 2021 amid the rapid spread of new, more infectious variants of the virus, hindering the economic recovery. After Q1 2021, the speed of the recovery will be dependent on the speed of global mass vaccination in order to prevent COVID-19 from circulating in unprotected populations, mutating and possibly evading the current crop of vaccines.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings
Key events so far (1)
Key events so far (2)
Downside risks to the recovery have declined
Uncertainty remains high

Euromonitor Recovery Index

The Recovery Index
Global overview for Recovery Index in Q1 2021
Index ranking based on Q1 2021 scores: 1 to 10
Index ranking based on Q1 2021 scores: 11 to 20
Index ranking based on Q1 2021 scores: 21 to 30
Index ranking based on Q1 2021 scores: 31 to 40
Index ranking based on Q1 2021 scores: Remaining countries
Recovery landscape in Q1 2021

Overview of Major Economies

New coronavirus variants pose major risk to the global economy
Major economies show hesitant signs of recovery
Labour market recovery is slowing
Weakening consumer spending in post festive season
Retail sales rebound takes a short break
Consumer confidence stays weak, but retains upwards trajectory

Country Insights

Brazil: Second wave of pandemic curbs consumption recovery
China: A slowdown in manufacturing sector hinders further recovery
Germany: A slight setback from the previous quarter
India: Stable COVID-19 situation offers more positivity in Q1 2021
Japan: Economic rebound set for Q2 uplifts consumer confidence
US: Nearing pre-pandemic levels as vaccination starts
UK: Improved outlook with restriction easing plan and vaccination

Conclusion

The speed of recovery will depend on the speed of vaccination
Key country insights
Outlook

Appendix: Index Methodology

Recovery Index Methodology
Recovery Index indicators and weights
COVID-19 global scenario assumptions and definitions
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