The global outlook has improved as of Q1 2021, thanks to vaccination progress in many developed countries. Nevertheless, the recovery prospects remain distant for most economies in the face of the spread of new, more infectious variants of the virus. Amid the pandemic and economic uncertainties, Euromonitor International’s Global Recovery Tracker helps businesses track and predict when activity in key markets will recover so as to plan their strategies accordingly.
The global economic outlook has improved since the end of 2020, owing primarily to a more positive outlook in developed countries, where progress in vaccination is expected to lead to a stronger economic rebound in the second half of 2021. Vaccination campaigns in developing economies are expected to take longer and therefore these economies are likely to face ongoing local COVID-19 waves.
Thanks to one of the fastest vaccination campaigns in the world, the US economic activity and consumer demand are estimated to have rebounded almost to 2019 levels in Q1 2021, with a full recovery expected in Q3 2021 – a quarter sooner than in our previous forecast.
Despite the quick vaccine roll-out, the UK is set to remain the worst performer in Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index. Brexit, heightened uncertainty about the future and lockdown restrictions have resulted in a worsening labour market situation and a drop in private consumption and retail sales.
Many countries, especially in Europe, tightened lockdown measures in Q1 2021 amid the rapid spread of new, more infectious variants of the virus, hindering the economic recovery. After Q1 2021, the speed of the recovery will be dependent on the speed of global mass vaccination in order to prevent COVID-19 from circulating in unprotected populations, mutating and possibly evading the current crop of vaccines.
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