Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco in South Africa

2021 DEVELOPMENTS

Heated tobacco products increase in popularity, based on consumer health trends

Heated tobacco products continued to perform well in 2021, with major players such as Philip Morris South Africa (Pty) Ltd British American Tobacco (South Africa) Ltd both registering significant growth for their tobacco heating devices Iqos and Glo, respectively. Much of this growth was the result of consumer preference changes, with increasing numbers of South Africans searching for new products that are perceived as “less harmful” than traditional cigarettes.

E-liquid growth driven by younger demographic demand for varying flavour and nicotine level offerings

E-liquids recorded dynamic current value growth in 2021, driven by demand from the younger demographic for numerous e-vapour variants. This aligns with consumer preference changes towards tobacco products which provide the ability to change product flavouring seamlessly, compared to traditional cigarettes which provide a single, constant flavour profile.

Smokeless tobacco gains in popularity in 2021

Smokeless tobacco, driven by moist snuff, returned to dynamic growth in 2021 following 2020’s decline, supported by specialist stores, based on several factors. First, while smokeless tobacco has been linked by several academic studies to detrimental dental health, longitudinal studies in developed smokeless tobacco markets, such as Sweden and Norway, indicate that the use of Swedish-style snus (a form of chewing tobacco with a negligible presence in South Africa), does not have any significant risk factors regarding the development of health concerns, including lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, or pancreatic cancer.

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Introduction of a potential vape tax to reshape the category

Separate to the Proposed Control of Tobacco and Electronic Delivery Systems Bill, the South African government stated in a 2021 discussion paper that it intends to implement taxes on e-vapour products by early 2023. This will have a significant impact on the financial planning of all tax obligated manufacturers, most likely resulting in a higher final price for the end consumer.

Proposed Control of Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Bill has potential to restrict sales over forecast period

The proposed Control of Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Bill also aims to include the banning of smoking and using heated tobacco products, which includes e-cigarettes and vaping devices, within enclosed spaces, public spaces and workplaces where there are children present. This will be a major development for e-vapour products if the bill is passed, as there no current regulations pertaining to where one can smoke these products.

Open vapour systems expected to record strong growth over forecast period

Open vapour systems, which include both the liquid and the device, are expected to grow strongly over the forecast period despite improving sales for closed vaping systems in 2021 due to competitive price offerings and several hundred inhales per device. One example is a relatively new entrant to the category, Airpops with its Airscream Disposable brand.